Donavan McKinney defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in the August 4, 2026, Democratic primary for Michigan's 13th Congressional District by a narrow margin of roughly 3.8 percentage points, with McKinney at 51.9% and Thanedar at 48.1% based on nearly complete unofficial tallies. This outcome, driven by strong progressive and local organizational support for the state representative challenger despite the incumbent's substantial fundraising edge, directly aligns with the elevated trader consensus around a McKinney victory under 4%. The closely contested nature of the race, reflecting turnout dynamics in the heavily Democratic Detroit-area district and limited polling visibility beforehand, has kept probabilities concentrated on the smallest positive margin bucket for McKinney while assigning residual weight to "other" scenarios amid ongoing certification.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMcKinney <4% 50.1%
McKinney 16%+ 3.9%
Thanedar <4% <1%
McKinney 12–16% <1%
$15,556 Vol.
$15,556 Vol.
4 ago 2026
McKinney 16%+
4%
McKinney 12–16%
<1%
McKinney 8–12%
<1%
McKinney 4–8%
36%
McKinney <4%
50%
Thanedar <4%
1%
Thanedar 4–8%
<1%
McKinney <4% 50.1%
McKinney 16%+ 3.9%
Thanedar <4% <1%
McKinney 12–16% <1%
$15,556 Vol.
$15,556 Vol.
4 ago 2026
McKinney 16%+
$3,999 Vol.
4%
McKinney 12–16%
$2,811 Vol.
<1%
McKinney 8–12%
$617 Vol.
<1%
McKinney 4–8%
$708 Vol.
36%
McKinney <4%
$2,677 Vol.
50%
Thanedar <4%
$2,557 Vol.
1%
Thanedar 4–8%
$740 Vol.
<1%
The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Donavan McKinney defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in the August 4, 2026, Democratic primary for Michigan's 13th Congressional District by a narrow margin of roughly 3.8 percentage points, with McKinney at 51.9% and Thanedar at 48.1% based on nearly complete unofficial tallies. This outcome, driven by strong progressive and local organizational support for the state representative challenger despite the incumbent's substantial fundraising edge, directly aligns with the elevated trader consensus around a McKinney victory under 4%. The closely contested nature of the race, reflecting turnout dynamics in the heavily Democratic Detroit-area district and limited polling visibility beforehand, has kept probabilities concentrated on the smallest positive margin bucket for McKinney while assigning residual weight to "other" scenarios amid ongoing certification.
The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercato aperto: Jul 27, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$15,556Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 27, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Donavan McKinney defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in the August 4, 2026, Democratic primary for Michigan's 13th Congressional District by a narrow margin of roughly 3.8 percentage points, with McKinney at 51.9% and Thanedar at 48.1% based on nearly complete unofficial tallies. This outcome, driven by strong progressive and local organizational support for the state representative challenger despite the incumbent's substantial fundraising edge, directly aligns with the elevated trader consensus around a McKinney victory under 4%. The closely contested nature of the race, reflecting turnout dynamics in the heavily Democratic Detroit-area district and limited polling visibility beforehand, has kept probabilities concentrated on the smallest positive margin bucket for McKinney while assigning residual weight to "other" scenarios amid ongoing certification.
The MI-13 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MI-13 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Michigan, such as official statewide results published by the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$15,556Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 27, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Donavan McKinney defeated incumbent Shri Thanedar in the August 4, 2026, Democratic primary for Michigan's 13th Congressional District by a narrow margin of roughly 3.8 percentage points, with McKinney at 51.9% and Thanedar at 48.1% based on nearly complete unofficial tallies. This outcome, driven by strong progressive and local organizational support for the state representative challenger despite the incumbent's substantial fundraising edge, directly aligns with the elevated trader consensus around a McKinney victory under 4%. The closely contested nature of the race, reflecting turnout dynamics in the heavily Democratic Detroit-area district and limited polling visibility beforehand, has kept probabilities concentrated on the smallest positive margin bucket for McKinney while assigning residual weight to "other" scenarios amid ongoing certification.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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