Recent polling aggregates place National and Labour as the clear frontrunners in party vote share ahead of the November 7 election, leaving the Greens and New Zealand First in close contention for third under the mixed-member proportional system. Current surveys from firms such as Roy Morgan, Taxpayers’ Union–Curia, and Reid Research show the Greens holding steady near 10 percent while New Zealand First fluctuates between 8.5 and 11.5 percent, with the former benefiting from consistent opposition support and the latter experiencing volatility tied to coalition dynamics. ACT trails further back, and minor parties including Opportunity remain below thresholds that would alter the top rankings. Traders appear to view the Greens’ steadier positioning and limited downside risk as giving them a modest edge for third place over New Zealand First. No major late-breaking events have shifted these relative standings in the past month.