**Recent Swedish opinion polls place Miljöpartiet (MP) support near or slightly below 7% ahead of the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, underpinning the modest trader lean toward "Under."** Aggregates and individual surveys from July–August, including Demoskop (6.6%), Novus (7.2%), and others, show the Greens hovering around 6.5–7.0% in a stable range with limited upward momentum. This reflects the party's post-2022 recovery from its 5.1% result but no decisive shift that would reliably clear 7% in the final weeks. The broader red-green opposition bloc leads the right-wing Tidö government in most polling, yet MP's individual share remains constrained by competition within the centre-left and steady but unspectacular environmental-issue salience. With the election date fixed and no major recent party-specific events or scandals altering trajectories, current polling averages inform the 56.5% implied probability on "Under" as a skin-in-the-game consensus on the narrow but persistent gap.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoOver
46% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
13 set 2026
Over
46% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
13 set 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish opinion polls place Miljöpartiet (MP) support near or slightly below 7% ahead of the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, underpinning the modest trader lean toward "Under."** Aggregates and individual surveys from July–August, including Demoskop (6.6%), Novus (7.2%), and others, show the Greens hovering around 6.5–7.0% in a stable range with limited upward momentum. This reflects the party's post-2022 recovery from its 5.1% result but no decisive shift that would reliably clear 7% in the final weeks.
The broader red-green opposition bloc leads the right-wing Tidö government in most polling, yet MP's individual share remains constrained by competition within the centre-left and steady but unspectacular environmental-issue salience. With the election date fixed and no major recent party-specific events or scandals altering trajectories, current polling averages inform the 56.5% implied probability on "Under" as a skin-in-the-game consensus on the narrow but persistent gap.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Volume
$215Data di fine
13 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish opinion polls place Miljöpartiet (MP) support near or slightly below 7% ahead of the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, underpinning the modest trader lean toward "Under."** Aggregates and individual surveys from July–August, including Demoskop (6.6%), Novus (7.2%), and others, show the Greens hovering around 6.5–7.0% in a stable range with limited upward momentum. This reflects the party's post-2022 recovery from its 5.1% result but no decisive shift that would reliably clear 7% in the final weeks.
The broader red-green opposition bloc leads the right-wing Tidö government in most polling, yet MP's individual share remains constrained by competition within the centre-left and steady but unspectacular environmental-issue salience. With the election date fixed and no major recent party-specific events or scandals altering trajectories, current polling averages inform the 56.5% implied probability on "Under" as a skin-in-the-game consensus on the narrow but persistent gap.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$215Data di fine
13 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent Swedish opinion polls place Miljöpartiet (MP) support near or slightly below 7% ahead of the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, underpinning the modest trader lean toward "Under."** Aggregates and individual surveys from July–August, including Demoskop (6.6%), Novus (7.2%), and others, show the Greens hovering around 6.5–7.0% in a stable range with limited upward momentum. This reflects the party's post-2022 recovery from its 5.1% result but no decisive shift that would reliably clear 7% in the final weeks. The broader red-green opposition bloc leads the right-wing Tidö government in most polling, yet MP's individual share remains constrained by competition within the centre-left and steady but unspectacular environmental-issue salience. With the election date fixed and no major recent party-specific events or scandals altering trajectories, current polling averages inform the 56.5% implied probability on "Under" as a skin-in-the-game consensus on the narrow but persistent gap.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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