Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Tucker Carlson will not face federal criminal charges, driven by the absence of any DOJ indictment or prosecution despite his March 2026 claims of a potential CIA criminal referral for alleged Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) violations tied to Iran communications. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed those assertions as unfounded, with no subsequent announcements, investigations, or court filings emerging in the two months since. This lack of action aligns with historical reluctance to pursue media figures on speech-related matters absent clear criminal evidence. While late-breaking developments like new evidence or a special counsel probe could shift odds, structural First Amendment protections and political risks maintain high confidence in a "No" resolution.