Recent UK CPI inflation eased to 2.6% in June 2026 from 2.8% in May, supported by lower fuel and food prices and a loosening labor market, yet the Bank of England projects a rebound to around 3.2% by Q4 amid higher energy costs from Middle East tensions. Trader sentiment remains split between the 2.5–2.9% and 3.5–3.9% annual average ranges because the scale of indirect pass-through effects, potential second-round wage pressures, and any further oil price spikes are still uncertain. The Bank Rate held at 3.75% reflects this balance, with upside risks from global energy markets offset by underlying disinflation and weak demand. The next CPI release on August 19 and September FOMC-aligned developments could shift the closely contested market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoU.K. Annual Inflation 2026
2.5–2.9% 23.4%
3.5–3.9% 22.4%
4.0-4.4% 11%
4.5%+ 8%
$55,531 Vol.
$55,531 Vol.
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
4%
1.5–1.9%
2%
2.0–2.4%
6%
2.5–2.9%
23%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
22%
4.0-4.4%
11%
4.5%+
8%
2.5–2.9% 23.4%
3.5–3.9% 22.4%
4.0-4.4% 11%
4.5%+ 8%
$55,531 Vol.
$55,531 Vol.
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
4%
1.5–1.9%
2%
2.0–2.4%
6%
2.5–2.9%
23%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
22%
4.0-4.4%
11%
4.5%+
8%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Mercato aperto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent UK CPI inflation eased to 2.6% in June 2026 from 2.8% in May, supported by lower fuel and food prices and a loosening labor market, yet the Bank of England projects a rebound to around 3.2% by Q4 amid higher energy costs from Middle East tensions. Trader sentiment remains split between the 2.5–2.9% and 3.5–3.9% annual average ranges because the scale of indirect pass-through effects, potential second-round wage pressures, and any further oil price spikes are still uncertain. The Bank Rate held at 3.75% reflects this balance, with upside risks from global energy markets offset by underlying disinflation and weak demand. The next CPI release on August 19 and September FOMC-aligned developments could shift the closely contested market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato



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