Traders assign a 99% probability against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31 because formal negotiations have remained stalled since February 2026 rounds in Geneva and Abu Dhabi, with core disagreements over territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and limits on Ukrainian NATO alignment persisting unchanged. Russian statements through July emphasized no immediate resumption absent major concessions, while Ukrainian proposals for pressure-based frameworks or direct leader meetings have drawn no reciprocal engagement. Brief 2026 ceasefires produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing broader terms. With roughly two weeks remaining, the absence of active shuttle diplomacy or battlefield shifts sufficient to alter positions underpins the consensus. Late developments such as intensified US-mediated contacts or unexpected battlefield reversals could still alter the timeline, though structural barriers make rapid resolution improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
1% probabilità
$260,211 Vol.
$260,211 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Sì
1% probabilità
$260,211 Vol.
$260,211 Vol.
31 ago 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 99% probability against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31 because formal negotiations have remained stalled since February 2026 rounds in Geneva and Abu Dhabi, with core disagreements over territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and limits on Ukrainian NATO alignment persisting unchanged. Russian statements through July emphasized no immediate resumption absent major concessions, while Ukrainian proposals for pressure-based frameworks or direct leader meetings have drawn no reciprocal engagement. Brief 2026 ceasefires produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing broader terms. With roughly two weeks remaining, the absence of active shuttle diplomacy or battlefield shifts sufficient to alter positions underpins the consensus. Late developments such as intensified US-mediated contacts or unexpected battlefield reversals could still alter the timeline, though structural barriers make rapid resolution improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$260,211Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 99% probability against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31 because formal negotiations have remained stalled since February 2026 rounds in Geneva and Abu Dhabi, with core disagreements over territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and limits on Ukrainian NATO alignment persisting unchanged. Russian statements through July emphasized no immediate resumption absent major concessions, while Ukrainian proposals for pressure-based frameworks or direct leader meetings have drawn no reciprocal engagement. Brief 2026 ceasefires produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing broader terms. With roughly two weeks remaining, the absence of active shuttle diplomacy or battlefield shifts sufficient to alter positions underpins the consensus. Late developments such as intensified US-mediated contacts or unexpected battlefield reversals could still alter the timeline, though structural barriers make rapid resolution improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$260,211Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99% probability against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31 because formal negotiations have remained stalled since February 2026 rounds in Geneva and Abu Dhabi, with core disagreements over territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and limits on Ukrainian NATO alignment persisting unchanged. Russian statements through July emphasized no immediate resumption absent major concessions, while Ukrainian proposals for pressure-based frameworks or direct leader meetings have drawn no reciprocal engagement. Brief 2026 ceasefires produced only prisoner exchanges without advancing broader terms. With roughly two weeks remaining, the absence of active shuttle diplomacy or battlefield shifts sufficient to alter positions underpins the consensus. Late developments such as intensified US-mediated contacts or unexpected battlefield reversals could still alter the timeline, though structural barriers make rapid resolution improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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