Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote as Federal Reserve Chair on August 28 will likely center on structural monetary policy questions—productivity, demographics, AI-driven growth, and deglobalization—rather than near-term rate guidance, consistent with his post-July FOMC comments that the speech offers a chance to “frame the big questions” away from quarterly data. The Fed held the funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent in late July amid 3.1 percent headline and 3.3 percent core CPI prints, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike and minutes noting that many participants saw further tightening as necessary if inflation fails to decline. Recent softer employment and inflation data have trimmed September hike odds to roughly even, while 10-year Treasury yields have risen on concerns that real rates are climbing. Traders will watch for any signals on the Fed’s ongoing framework review or balance-sheet path, given Warsh’s repeated emphasis that policy is not constrained by market pricing.