US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 17, 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which set a 60-day window for finalizing terms on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and ceasefire implementation after earlier rounds in Oman, Geneva, Islamabad, and Doha. As of mid-August 2026, Washington reports ongoing or indirect technical exchanges and mediation efforts by Pakistan and Oman, while Tehran emphasizes separate Iran-Oman discussions and denies formal bilateral negotiations. Key sticking points include navigation rights through the Strait, enforcement of the temporary ceasefire, and verification of enrichment activities. With the MOU timeline expiring soon and December 31 as the market horizon, any resumption of higher-level talks would likely involve US officials such as Vice President JD Vance or special envoys alongside Iranian counterparts like Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf or Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, subject to regional pressures and internal decision-making in both capitals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$165,674 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Jared Kushner
62%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
47%
Abbas Araghchi
45%
J.D. Vance
43%
Marco Rubio
42%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
49%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
35%
Masoud Pezeshkian
34%
Rafael Grossi
41%
Ishaq Dar
30%
Kazem Gharibabadi
21%
Nick Stewart
21%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
17%
Donald Trump
12%
Esmail Qaani
8%
Pete Hegseth
6%
Ahmad Vahidi
5%
Mojtaba Khamenei
5%
Steve Witkoff
38%
$165,674 Vol.
Jared Kushner
$8,084 Vol.
62%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$11,231 Vol.
47%
Abbas Araghchi
$6,712 Vol.
45%
J.D. Vance
$11,899 Vol.
43%
Marco Rubio
$10,766 Vol.
42%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$10,113 Vol.
49%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$11,007 Vol.
35%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$9,524 Vol.
34%
Rafael Grossi
$8,903 Vol.
41%
Ishaq Dar
$7,098 Vol.
30%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$14,348 Vol.
21%
Nick Stewart
$2,508 Vol.
21%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$11,760 Vol.
17%
Donald Trump
$81 Vol.
12%
Esmail Qaani
$9,883 Vol.
8%
Pete Hegseth
$2,478 Vol.
6%
Ahmad Vahidi
$2,198 Vol.
5%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$19,189 Vol.
5%
Steve Witkoff
$7,891 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 17, 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which set a 60-day window for finalizing terms on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and ceasefire implementation after earlier rounds in Oman, Geneva, Islamabad, and Doha. As of mid-August 2026, Washington reports ongoing or indirect technical exchanges and mediation efforts by Pakistan and Oman, while Tehran emphasizes separate Iran-Oman discussions and denies formal bilateral negotiations. Key sticking points include navigation rights through the Strait, enforcement of the temporary ceasefire, and verification of enrichment activities. With the MOU timeline expiring soon and December 31 as the market horizon, any resumption of higher-level talks would likely involve US officials such as Vice President JD Vance or special envoys alongside Iranian counterparts like Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf or Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, subject to regional pressures and internal decision-making in both capitals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$165,674Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 17, 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which set a 60-day window for finalizing terms on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and ceasefire implementation after earlier rounds in Oman, Geneva, Islamabad, and Doha. As of mid-August 2026, Washington reports ongoing or indirect technical exchanges and mediation efforts by Pakistan and Oman, while Tehran emphasizes separate Iran-Oman discussions and denies formal bilateral negotiations. Key sticking points include navigation rights through the Strait, enforcement of the temporary ceasefire, and verification of enrichment activities. With the MOU timeline expiring soon and December 31 as the market horizon, any resumption of higher-level talks would likely involve US officials such as Vice President JD Vance or special envoys alongside Iranian counterparts like Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf or Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, subject to regional pressures and internal decision-making in both capitals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$165,674Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomacy remains stalled following the June 17, 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which set a 60-day window for finalizing terms on the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and ceasefire implementation after earlier rounds in Oman, Geneva, Islamabad, and Doha. As of mid-August 2026, Washington reports ongoing or indirect technical exchanges and mediation efforts by Pakistan and Oman, while Tehran emphasizes separate Iran-Oman discussions and denies formal bilateral negotiations. Key sticking points include navigation rights through the Strait, enforcement of the temporary ceasefire, and verification of enrichment activities. With the MOU timeline expiring soon and December 31 as the market horizon, any resumption of higher-level talks would likely involve US officials such as Vice President JD Vance or special envoys alongside Iranian counterparts like Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf or Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, subject to regional pressures and internal decision-making in both capitals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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