Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale PLA amphibious buildup, mobilization signals, or official statements indicating imminent action. Ongoing PRC activities center on gray-zone coercion, including coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, maritime traffic controls, and routine live-fire drills, consistent with short-of-war pressure rather than preparation for a joint island landing campaign. Taiwan's August 2026 Han Kuang exercises, with expanded reservist call-ups and supply resilience tests, underscore defensive focus without triggering escalation. Leadership transitions and internal PLA constraints further reduce near-term invasion likelihood within the compressed timeframe. Low-probability shifts could still arise from miscalculation during exercises or abrupt diplomatic realignments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?
La Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?
Sì
$39,750,064 Vol.
$39,750,064 Vol.
Sì
$39,750,064 Vol.
$39,750,064 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Risolutore
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Risolutore
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale PLA amphibious buildup, mobilization signals, or official statements indicating imminent action. Ongoing PRC activities center on gray-zone coercion, including coast guard patrols east of Taiwan, maritime traffic controls, and routine live-fire drills, consistent with short-of-war pressure rather than preparation for a joint island landing campaign. Taiwan's August 2026 Han Kuang exercises, with expanded reservist call-ups and supply resilience tests, underscore defensive focus without triggering escalation. Leadership transitions and internal PLA constraints further reduce near-term invasion likelihood within the compressed timeframe. Low-probability shifts could still arise from miscalculation during exercises or abrupt diplomatic realignments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti