Recent observational data from early August 2026 show record global and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures on August 1 and subsequent early-month days, with anomalies exceeding prior highs by substantial margins relative to 1991-2020 baselines. This aligns with 2026's trajectory as one of the warmest years on record, fueled by persistent ocean heat content, developing El Niño conditions, and cumulative greenhouse gas forcing. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the 1st-hottest outcome reflects these verified measurements from sources tracking daily anomalies. Revised final datasets or shifts in reference periods could alter rankings, though model consensus and ongoing heat suggest limited upside for lower placements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年8月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？
2026年8月1日、2日、3日は過去最高の記録ですか？
1st hottest 94%
2nd hottest 6%
3rd hottest 1.8%
4th or lower 1.6%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
1st hottest
94%
2nd hottest
6%
3rd hottest
2%
4th or lower
2%
1st hottest 94%
2nd hottest 6%
3rd hottest 1.8%
4th or lower 1.6%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
1st hottest
$502 Vol.
94%
2nd hottest
$334 Vol.
6%
3rd hottest
$152 Vol.
2%
4th or lower
$151 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from early August 2026 show record global and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures on August 1 and subsequent early-month days, with anomalies exceeding prior highs by substantial margins relative to 1991-2020 baselines. This aligns with 2026's trajectory as one of the warmest years on record, fueled by persistent ocean heat content, developing El Niño conditions, and cumulative greenhouse gas forcing. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the 1st-hottest outcome reflects these verified measurements from sources tracking daily anomalies. Revised final datasets or shifts in reference periods could alter rankings, though model consensus and ongoing heat suggest limited upside for lower placements.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
マーケット開始日： Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
音量
$1,140終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from early August 2026 show record global and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures on August 1 and subsequent early-month days, with anomalies exceeding prior highs by substantial margins relative to 1991-2020 baselines. This aligns with 2026's trajectory as one of the warmest years on record, fueled by persistent ocean heat content, developing El Niño conditions, and cumulative greenhouse gas forcing. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the 1st-hottest outcome reflects these verified measurements from sources tracking daily anomalies. Revised final datasets or shifts in reference periods could alter rankings, though model consensus and ongoing heat suggest limited upside for lower placements.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
音量
$1,140終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from early August 2026 show record global and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures on August 1 and subsequent early-month days, with anomalies exceeding prior highs by substantial margins relative to 1991-2020 baselines. This aligns with 2026's trajectory as one of the warmest years on record, fueled by persistent ocean heat content, developing El Niño conditions, and cumulative greenhouse gas forcing. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the 1st-hottest outcome reflects these verified measurements from sources tracking daily anomalies. Revised final datasets or shifts in reference periods could alter rankings, though model consensus and ongoing heat suggest limited upside for lower placements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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