The tight race for Bahia governor in October 2026 reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent surveys showing only marginal leads or technical ties in first-round voting intentions. Polling fluctuations, including slight edges for Neto in May surveys from firms like Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, have kept the contest competitive amid shifting voter sentiment and national political realignments. Trader consensus assigns ACM Neto the highest probability at 47.5 percent and Jerônimo Rodrigues 39.5 percent, while fringe candidates remain below 1 percent. Key factors that could widen the gap include further polling trends, debate performances, and alignment with national coalitions ahead of the October election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 44%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$14,079 Vol.
$14,079 Vol.
2026/10/04
ACM Neto
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
40%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
ACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 44%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$14,079 Vol.
$14,079 Vol.
2026/10/04
ACM Neto
$3,817 Vol.
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,895 Vol.
40%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$966 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight race for Bahia governor in October 2026 reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent surveys showing only marginal leads or technical ties in first-round voting intentions. Polling fluctuations, including slight edges for Neto in May surveys from firms like Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, have kept the contest competitive amid shifting voter sentiment and national political realignments. Trader consensus assigns ACM Neto the highest probability at 47.5 percent and Jerônimo Rodrigues 39.5 percent, while fringe candidates remain below 1 percent. Key factors that could widen the gap include further polling trends, debate performances, and alignment with national coalitions ahead of the October election.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
音量
$14,079終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight race for Bahia governor in October 2026 reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent surveys showing only marginal leads or technical ties in first-round voting intentions. Polling fluctuations, including slight edges for Neto in May surveys from firms like Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, have kept the contest competitive amid shifting voter sentiment and national political realignments. Trader consensus assigns ACM Neto the highest probability at 47.5 percent and Jerônimo Rodrigues 39.5 percent, while fringe candidates remain below 1 percent. Key factors that could widen the gap include further polling trends, debate performances, and alignment with national coalitions ahead of the October election.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$14,079終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight race for Bahia governor in October 2026 reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent surveys showing only marginal leads or technical ties in first-round voting intentions. Polling fluctuations, including slight edges for Neto in May surveys from firms like Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, have kept the contest competitive amid shifting voter sentiment and national political realignments. Trader consensus assigns ACM Neto the highest probability at 47.5 percent and Jerônimo Rodrigues 39.5 percent, while fringe candidates remain below 1 percent. Key factors that could widen the gap include further polling trends, debate performances, and alignment with national coalitions ahead of the October election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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