Elevated Selic rates near 15% have tightened credit conditions and damped domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus around moderate Q1 2026 GDP growth with the 1.9%–2.2% range holding a narrow 40% implied probability just ahead of the 1.5%–1.8% band at 38%. This tight contest reflects offsetting forces: fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit lines have supported retail sales and PMI readings above 52, while agricultural base effects and steady external demand provide modest lift. Full-year forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus cluster at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential Q1 acceleration before later moderation. The IBGE preliminary release on May 29 remains the decisive catalyst, with any surprise in inflation data likely to shift probabilities between these adjacent outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1.9％～2.2％ 40.0%
1.5％～1.8％ 37%
1.1％～1.4％ 5.9%
2.3％～2.6％ 5.1%
$21,009 Vol.
$21,009 Vol.
2026/05/29
0.7％未満
2%
0.7％～1.0％
2%
1.1％～1.4％
6%
1.5％～1.8％
39%
1.9％～2.2％
40%
2.3％～2.6％
17%
2.7％以上
3%
1.9％～2.2％ 40.0%
1.5％～1.8％ 37%
1.1％～1.4％ 5.9%
2.3％～2.6％ 5.1%
$21,009 Vol.
$21,009 Vol.
2026/05/29
0.7％未満
$14,390 Vol.
2%
0.7％～1.0％
$661 Vol.
2%
1.1％～1.4％
$720 Vol.
6%
1.5％～1.8％
$1,045 Vol.
39%
1.9％～2.2％
$1,635 Vol.
40%
2.3％～2.6％
$732 Vol.
17%
2.7％以上
$1,827 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 15% have tightened credit conditions and damped domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus around moderate Q1 2026 GDP growth with the 1.9%–2.2% range holding a narrow 40% implied probability just ahead of the 1.5%–1.8% band at 38%. This tight contest reflects offsetting forces: fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit lines have supported retail sales and PMI readings above 52, while agricultural base effects and steady external demand provide modest lift. Full-year forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus cluster at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential Q1 acceleration before later moderation. The IBGE preliminary release on May 29 remains the decisive catalyst, with any surprise in inflation data likely to shift probabilities between these adjacent outcomes.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
音量
$21,009終了日
2026/05/29マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlElevated Selic rates near 15% have tightened credit conditions and damped domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus around moderate Q1 2026 GDP growth with the 1.9%–2.2% range holding a narrow 40% implied probability just ahead of the 1.5%–1.8% band at 38%. This tight contest reflects offsetting forces: fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit lines have supported retail sales and PMI readings above 52, while agricultural base effects and steady external demand provide modest lift. Full-year forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus cluster at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential Q1 acceleration before later moderation. The IBGE preliminary release on May 29 remains the decisive catalyst, with any surprise in inflation data likely to shift probabilities between these adjacent outcomes.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
音量
$21,009終了日
2026/05/29マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated Selic rates near 15% have tightened credit conditions and damped domestic demand, anchoring trader consensus around moderate Q1 2026 GDP growth with the 1.9%–2.2% range holding a narrow 40% implied probability just ahead of the 1.5%–1.8% band at 38%. This tight contest reflects offsetting forces: fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit lines have supported retail sales and PMI readings above 52, while agricultural base effects and steady external demand provide modest lift. Full-year forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus cluster at 1.7%–1.9%, consistent with sequential Q1 acceleration before later moderation. The IBGE preliminary release on May 29 remains the decisive catalyst, with any surprise in inflation data likely to shift probabilities between these adjacent outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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