Recent polling from early May shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding narrow first-round leads of four to six points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with roughly 10 percent undecided and opposition support split among several right-leaning figures. This volatility, absent any decisive consolidation behind a single challenger, has driven trader consensus toward sub-5 percent victory margins for either frontrunner on October 4. Lula’s position remains stable in Workers’ Party strongholds, while Flávio benefits from former President Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and gains in key states. Fragmented third options such as Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior further compress the expected gap, sustaining elevated implied probabilities for the closest outcome brackets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ <5% 31%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ <5% 25%
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 5〜10％ 18%
ルラ・ダ・シルバ 10〜15％ 8.7%
$231,656 Vol.
$231,656 Vol.
2026/10/04
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 15％以上
2%
ルラ・ダ・シルバ 10〜15％
9%
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 5〜10％
18%
ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ <5%
41%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ10％以上
2%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 5～10％
6%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ <5%
25%
レナン・サントスの勝利
5%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタスの勝利
<1%
ラチーニョ・ジュニオールの勝利
1%
その他
8%
ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ <5% 31%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ <5% 25%
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 5〜10％ 18%
ルラ・ダ・シルバ 10〜15％ 8.7%
$231,656 Vol.
$231,656 Vol.
2026/10/04
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 15％以上
$4,601 Vol.
2%
ルラ・ダ・シルバ 10〜15％
$2,627 Vol.
9%
ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 5〜10％
$6,808 Vol.
18%
ルーラ・ダ・シルヴァ <5%
$2,923 Vol.
41%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ10％以上
$1,984 Vol.
2%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 5～10％
$2,309 Vol.
6%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ <5%
$4,026 Vol.
25%
レナン・サントスの勝利
$200,633 Vol.
5%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタスの勝利
$1,712 Vol.
<1%
ラチーニョ・ジュニオールの勝利
$1,774 Vol.
1%
その他
$2,258 Vol.
8%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from early May shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding narrow first-round leads of four to six points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with roughly 10 percent undecided and opposition support split among several right-leaning figures. This volatility, absent any decisive consolidation behind a single challenger, has driven trader consensus toward sub-5 percent victory margins for either frontrunner on October 4. Lula’s position remains stable in Workers’ Party strongholds, while Flávio benefits from former President Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and gains in key states. Fragmented third options such as Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior further compress the expected gap, sustaining elevated implied probabilities for the closest outcome brackets.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
音量
$231,656終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from early May shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding narrow first-round leads of four to six points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with roughly 10 percent undecided and opposition support split among several right-leaning figures. This volatility, absent any decisive consolidation behind a single challenger, has driven trader consensus toward sub-5 percent victory margins for either frontrunner on October 4. Lula’s position remains stable in Workers’ Party strongholds, while Flávio benefits from former President Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and gains in key states. Fragmented third options such as Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior further compress the expected gap, sustaining elevated implied probabilities for the closest outcome brackets.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$231,656終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from early May shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding narrow first-round leads of four to six points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with roughly 10 percent undecided and opposition support split among several right-leaning figures. This volatility, absent any decisive consolidation behind a single challenger, has driven trader consensus toward sub-5 percent victory margins for either frontrunner on October 4. Lula’s position remains stable in Workers’ Party strongholds, while Flávio benefits from former President Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and gains in key states. Fragmented third options such as Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior further compress the expected gap, sustaining elevated implied probabilities for the closest outcome brackets.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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