Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson faces his strongest primary challenge in years from venture capitalist Eric Jones in California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2. The district's D+8 partisan lean, reinforced by Proposition 50 redistricting that incorporated additional rural counties while preserving Democratic advantages, sets the stage for both Democrats to advance over a crowded field of six Republicans and one independent. Thompson benefits from 28 years in office, party endorsements, and super PAC support, while Jones leads among challengers through substantial grassroots fundraising from tech donors and a Bernie Sanders endorsement. A splintered Republican vote makes consolidation unlikely, aligning trader consensus with historical patterns favoring incumbents and well-funded opponents in safe Democratic seats. No major polls have emerged recently, but late endorsements or spending could influence the runner-up spot before early voting concludes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$29,989 Vol.
マイク・トンプソン
97%
エリック・ジョーンズ
90%
ヒース・ファルカーソン
11%
ジョン・ウェスリー・タイラー
8%
トレバー・メレル
7%
ローリー・マッケンジー
4%
シャロン・ブラウン
2%
マンディ・グシャル
<1%
$29,989 Vol.
マイク・トンプソン
97%
エリック・ジョーンズ
90%
ヒース・ファルカーソン
11%
ジョン・ウェスリー・タイラー
8%
トレバー・メレル
7%
ローリー・マッケンジー
4%
シャロン・ブラウン
2%
マンディ・グシャル
<1%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日: Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson faces his strongest primary challenge in years from venture capitalist Eric Jones in California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2. The district's D+8 partisan lean, reinforced by Proposition 50 redistricting that incorporated additional rural counties while preserving Democratic advantages, sets the stage for both Democrats to advance over a crowded field of six Republicans and one independent. Thompson benefits from 28 years in office, party endorsements, and super PAC support, while Jones leads among challengers through substantial grassroots fundraising from tech donors and a Bernie Sanders endorsement. A splintered Republican vote makes consolidation unlikely, aligning trader consensus with historical patterns favoring incumbents and well-funded opponents in safe Democratic seats. No major polls have emerged recently, but late endorsements or spending could influence the runner-up spot before early voting concludes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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