Despite persistent maritime incidents in the South China Sea, including recent accusations over landings at Sandy Cay and a floating barrier installed at Scarborough Shoal in April 2026, trader sentiment heavily favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027. Both governments have sustained diplomatic channels, including bilateral maritime talks and renewed discussions on joint oil and gas exploration prompted by the 2026 global energy shock. Manila’s participation in expanded Balikatan exercises with U.S. and allied forces has coincided with efforts to avoid direct confrontation, while provisional resupply arrangements at Second Thomas Shoal remain in place. These developments, alongside institutional commitments to a Code of Conduct, signal continued preference for managed competition over escalation through the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$357,061 Vol.
$357,061 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$357,061 Vol.
$357,061 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite persistent maritime incidents in the South China Sea, including recent accusations over landings at Sandy Cay and a floating barrier installed at Scarborough Shoal in April 2026, trader sentiment heavily favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027. Both governments have sustained diplomatic channels, including bilateral maritime talks and renewed discussions on joint oil and gas exploration prompted by the 2026 global energy shock. Manila’s participation in expanded Balikatan exercises with U.S. and allied forces has coincided with efforts to avoid direct confrontation, while provisional resupply arrangements at Second Thomas Shoal remain in place. These developments, alongside institutional commitments to a Code of Conduct, signal continued preference for managed competition over escalation through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
音量
$357,061終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite persistent maritime incidents in the South China Sea, including recent accusations over landings at Sandy Cay and a floating barrier installed at Scarborough Shoal in April 2026, trader sentiment heavily favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027. Both governments have sustained diplomatic channels, including bilateral maritime talks and renewed discussions on joint oil and gas exploration prompted by the 2026 global energy shock. Manila’s participation in expanded Balikatan exercises with U.S. and allied forces has coincided with efforts to avoid direct confrontation, while provisional resupply arrangements at Second Thomas Shoal remain in place. These developments, alongside institutional commitments to a Code of Conduct, signal continued preference for managed competition over escalation through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$357,061終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite persistent maritime incidents in the South China Sea, including recent accusations over landings at Sandy Cay and a floating barrier installed at Scarborough Shoal in April 2026, trader sentiment heavily favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027. Both governments have sustained diplomatic channels, including bilateral maritime talks and renewed discussions on joint oil and gas exploration prompted by the 2026 global energy shock. Manila’s participation in expanded Balikatan exercises with U.S. and allied forces has coincided with efforts to avoid direct confrontation, while provisional resupply arrangements at Second Thomas Shoal remain in place. These developments, alongside institutional commitments to a Code of Conduct, signal continued preference for managed competition over escalation through the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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