Trump's continued tenure through late September 2026 reflects the absence of active removal processes capable of succeeding in the narrow window. Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress have referred recent impeachment resolutions, including the August 2026 measure, to committee without floor action, while Senate thresholds for conviction remain unreachable. Invocation of the 25th Amendment lacks support from the vice president or Cabinet. No verified health developments, resignation signals, or legal disqualifications have emerged in recent weeks. Traders assign overwhelming probability to continuity because midterm elections occur after the resolution date and historical precedent shows rapid presidential removals as rare outside terminal incapacity or overwhelming bipartisan consensus. Unforeseen acute events, such as sudden medical incapacity or unforeseen legal rulings, represent the primary low-probability variables that could still shift the outcome before September 30.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
1% 確率
$209,219 Vol.
$209,219 Vol.
2026/09/30
はい
1% 確率
$209,219 Vol.
$209,219 Vol.
2026/09/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's continued tenure through late September 2026 reflects the absence of active removal processes capable of succeeding in the narrow window. Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress have referred recent impeachment resolutions, including the August 2026 measure, to committee without floor action, while Senate thresholds for conviction remain unreachable. Invocation of the 25th Amendment lacks support from the vice president or Cabinet. No verified health developments, resignation signals, or legal disqualifications have emerged in recent weeks. Traders assign overwhelming probability to continuity because midterm elections occur after the resolution date and historical precedent shows rapid presidential removals as rare outside terminal incapacity or overwhelming bipartisan consensus. Unforeseen acute events, such as sudden medical incapacity or unforeseen legal rulings, represent the primary low-probability variables that could still shift the outcome before September 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
音量
$209,219終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's continued tenure through late September 2026 reflects the absence of active removal processes capable of succeeding in the narrow window. Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress have referred recent impeachment resolutions, including the August 2026 measure, to committee without floor action, while Senate thresholds for conviction remain unreachable. Invocation of the 25th Amendment lacks support from the vice president or Cabinet. No verified health developments, resignation signals, or legal disqualifications have emerged in recent weeks. Traders assign overwhelming probability to continuity because midterm elections occur after the resolution date and historical precedent shows rapid presidential removals as rare outside terminal incapacity or overwhelming bipartisan consensus. Unforeseen acute events, such as sudden medical incapacity or unforeseen legal rulings, represent the primary low-probability variables that could still shift the outcome before September 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$209,219終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Trump's continued tenure through late September 2026 reflects the absence of active removal processes capable of succeeding in the narrow window. Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress have referred recent impeachment resolutions, including the August 2026 measure, to committee without floor action, while Senate thresholds for conviction remain unreachable. Invocation of the 25th Amendment lacks support from the vice president or Cabinet. No verified health developments, resignation signals, or legal disqualifications have emerged in recent weeks. Traders assign overwhelming probability to continuity because midterm elections occur after the resolution date and historical precedent shows rapid presidential removals as rare outside terminal incapacity or overwhelming bipartisan consensus. Unforeseen acute events, such as sudden medical incapacity or unforeseen legal rulings, represent the primary low-probability variables that could still shift the outcome before September 30.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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