Eurozone headline inflation surged to 3% in April 2026—well above the ECB's 2% target—driven by energy price spikes from the escalating Iran conflict, fueling trader consensus for at least one rate hike this year at over 90% implied probability. The ECB's Governing Council held the deposit facility rate at 2% on April 30 but debated increases, with President Christine Lagarde signaling a June decision hinges on energy trends and war developments; recent Bloomberg and Reuters surveys project two hikes amid persistent pressures. Officials like Nagel and Kocher have endorsed hikes if inflation endures, though a durable ceasefire or oil price drop could avert action before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$111,659 Vol.
$111,659 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$111,659 Vol.
$111,659 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone headline inflation surged to 3% in April 2026—well above the ECB's 2% target—driven by energy price spikes from the escalating Iran conflict, fueling trader consensus for at least one rate hike this year at over 90% implied probability. The ECB's Governing Council held the deposit facility rate at 2% on April 30 but debated increases, with President Christine Lagarde signaling a June decision hinges on energy trends and war developments; recent Bloomberg and Reuters surveys project two hikes amid persistent pressures. Officials like Nagel and Kocher have endorsed hikes if inflation endures, though a durable ceasefire or oil price drop could avert action before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
音量
$111,659終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone headline inflation surged to 3% in April 2026—well above the ECB's 2% target—driven by energy price spikes from the escalating Iran conflict, fueling trader consensus for at least one rate hike this year at over 90% implied probability. The ECB's Governing Council held the deposit facility rate at 2% on April 30 but debated increases, with President Christine Lagarde signaling a June decision hinges on energy trends and war developments; recent Bloomberg and Reuters surveys project two hikes amid persistent pressures. Officials like Nagel and Kocher have endorsed hikes if inflation endures, though a durable ceasefire or oil price drop could avert action before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$111,659終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Eurozone headline inflation surged to 3% in April 2026—well above the ECB's 2% target—driven by energy price spikes from the escalating Iran conflict, fueling trader consensus for at least one rate hike this year at over 90% implied probability. The ECB's Governing Council held the deposit facility rate at 2% on April 30 but debated increases, with President Christine Lagarde signaling a June decision hinges on energy trends and war developments; recent Bloomberg and Reuters surveys project two hikes amid persistent pressures. Officials like Nagel and Kocher have endorsed hikes if inflation endures, though a durable ceasefire or oil price drop could avert action before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問