The Galway West by-election on 22 May fills the Dáil vacancy created by Catherine Connolly’s election as President. Trader consensus positions Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas at 46.5 percent, ahead of Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne at 31.1 percent, with Labour’s Helen Ogbu, Social Democrats’ Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich and several independents trailing. An early-May Irish Times/TG4 poll showed Kyne and Thomas nearly tied on first preferences, while the left-leaning vote remains split across multiple candidates. Recent RTE debates and canvassing have focused on cost-of-living pressures, fuel costs and immigration, issues that could influence transfers on count day. The outcome hinges on how local name recognition, party machinery and second-preference flows from smaller parties shape the final result.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ノエル・トーマス 42%
シェーン・カイン 31.1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.7%
マイク・カバード 9.3%
$47,345 Vol.
$47,345 Vol.
2027/03/31
シーラ・ギャリティ
1%
シェーン・カイン
31%
ナイアル・マーフィー
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
10%
オーラ・ニュージェント
<1%
ヘレン・オグブ
4%
デンマン・ルーク
1%
ノエル・トーマス
47%
トーマス・ウェルビー
<1%
マイク・カバード
9%
マーク・ローハン
4%
ノエル・トーマス 42%
シェーン・カイン 31.1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.7%
マイク・カバード 9.3%
$47,345 Vol.
$47,345 Vol.
2027/03/31
シーラ・ギャリティ
$20,246 Vol.
1%
シェーン・カイン
$4,701 Vol.
31%
ナイアル・マーフィー
$1,834 Vol.
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
$1,654 Vol.
10%
オーラ・ニュージェント
$1,680 Vol.
<1%
ヘレン・オグブ
$3,933 Vol.
4%
デンマン・ルーク
$1,612 Vol.
1%
ノエル・トーマス
$5,057 Vol.
47%
トーマス・ウェルビー
$1,697 Vol.
<1%
マイク・カバード
$2,421 Vol.
9%
マーク・ローハン
$2,509 Vol.
4%
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).The Galway West by-election on 22 May fills the Dáil vacancy created by Catherine Connolly’s election as President. Trader consensus positions Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas at 46.5 percent, ahead of Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne at 31.1 percent, with Labour’s Helen Ogbu, Social Democrats’ Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich and several independents trailing. An early-May Irish Times/TG4 poll showed Kyne and Thomas nearly tied on first preferences, while the left-leaning vote remains split across multiple candidates. Recent RTE debates and canvassing have focused on cost-of-living pressures, fuel costs and immigration, issues that could influence transfers on count day. The outcome hinges on how local name recognition, party machinery and second-preference flows from smaller parties shape the final result.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
音量
$47,345終了日
2027/03/31マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).The Galway West by-election on 22 May fills the Dáil vacancy created by Catherine Connolly’s election as President. Trader consensus positions Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas at 46.5 percent, ahead of Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne at 31.1 percent, with Labour’s Helen Ogbu, Social Democrats’ Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich and several independents trailing. An early-May Irish Times/TG4 poll showed Kyne and Thomas nearly tied on first preferences, while the left-leaning vote remains split across multiple candidates. Recent RTE debates and canvassing have focused on cost-of-living pressures, fuel costs and immigration, issues that could influence transfers on count day. The outcome hinges on how local name recognition, party machinery and second-preference flows from smaller parties shape the final result.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
音量
$47,345終了日
2027/03/31マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Galway West by-election on 22 May fills the Dáil vacancy created by Catherine Connolly’s election as President. Trader consensus positions Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas at 46.5 percent, ahead of Fine Gael Senator Seán Kyne at 31.1 percent, with Labour’s Helen Ogbu, Social Democrats’ Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich and several independents trailing. An early-May Irish Times/TG4 poll showed Kyne and Thomas nearly tied on first preferences, while the left-leaning vote remains split across multiple candidates. Recent RTE debates and canvassing have focused on cost-of-living pressures, fuel costs and immigration, issues that could influence transfers on count day. The outcome hinges on how local name recognition, party machinery and second-preference flows from smaller parties shape the final result.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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