Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.0 percent band, which holds the highest implied probability at 44.8 percent. Fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act continue to support consumer spending and investment, yet higher tariffs and tighter immigration policies exert offsetting pressure on net exports and labor supply. This balance keeps the >2.5 percent outcome competitive at 35.5 percent while the 2.0–2.5 percent range sits at 22.0 percent. Upcoming data releases on inflation, employment, and second-quarter GDP will serve as key swing factors, allowing markets to refine the 2026 growth trajectory amid ongoing policy uncertainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2.0〜2.5％ 19%
0.5%未満 18.6%
0.5～1.0％ 12.5%
1.0〜1.5％ 12.0%
$28,267 Vol.
$28,267 Vol.
2027/01/29
0.5%未満
19%
0.5～1.0％
13%
1.0〜1.5％
12%
1.5〜2.0％
44%
2.0〜2.5％
22%
>2.5％
36%
2.0〜2.5％ 19%
0.5%未満 18.6%
0.5～1.0％ 12.5%
1.0〜1.5％ 12.0%
$28,267 Vol.
$28,267 Vol.
2027/01/29
0.5%未満
$3,906 Vol.
19%
0.5～1.0％
$15,332 Vol.
13%
1.0〜1.5％
$1,562 Vol.
12%
1.5〜2.0％
$1,534 Vol.
44%
2.0〜2.5％
$1,846 Vol.
22%
>2.5％
$4,088 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.0 percent band, which holds the highest implied probability at 44.8 percent. Fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act continue to support consumer spending and investment, yet higher tariffs and tighter immigration policies exert offsetting pressure on net exports and labor supply. This balance keeps the >2.5 percent outcome competitive at 35.5 percent while the 2.0–2.5 percent range sits at 22.0 percent. Upcoming data releases on inflation, employment, and second-quarter GDP will serve as key swing factors, allowing markets to refine the 2026 growth trajectory amid ongoing policy uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
音量
$28,267終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.0 percent band, which holds the highest implied probability at 44.8 percent. Fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act continue to support consumer spending and investment, yet higher tariffs and tighter immigration policies exert offsetting pressure on net exports and labor supply. This balance keeps the >2.5 percent outcome competitive at 35.5 percent while the 2.0–2.5 percent range sits at 22.0 percent. Upcoming data releases on inflation, employment, and second-quarter GDP will serve as key swing factors, allowing markets to refine the 2026 growth trajectory amid ongoing policy uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$28,267終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.0 percent band, which holds the highest implied probability at 44.8 percent. Fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act continue to support consumer spending and investment, yet higher tariffs and tighter immigration policies exert offsetting pressure on net exports and labor supply. This balance keeps the >2.5 percent outcome competitive at 35.5 percent while the 2.0–2.5 percent range sits at 22.0 percent. Upcoming data releases on inflation, employment, and second-quarter GDP will serve as key swing factors, allowing markets to refine the 2026 growth trajectory amid ongoing policy uncertainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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