Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda secured renomination in the August 8 primary with over 91 percent of the vote against minor challengers, while Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa advanced unopposed as the GOP nominee. The district’s D+12 Partisan Voter Index, combined with Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point margin and Tokuda’s 66.5 percent win in 2024, underpins the strong Democratic baseline. Race raters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, and forecasts project Tokuda capturing roughly 75 percent of the general-election vote. Trader pricing aligns with this structural advantage and recent primary consolidation. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though the district’s consistent partisan pattern and incumbency edge limit realistic paths to an upset before the November 3 contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$63,531 Vol.
$63,531 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
96%
共和党
6%
$63,531 Vol.
$63,531 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$43,095 Vol.
96%
共和党
$20,436 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda secured renomination in the August 8 primary with over 91 percent of the vote against minor challengers, while Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa advanced unopposed as the GOP nominee. The district’s D+12 Partisan Voter Index, combined with Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point margin and Tokuda’s 66.5 percent win in 2024, underpins the strong Democratic baseline. Race raters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, and forecasts project Tokuda capturing roughly 75 percent of the general-election vote. Trader pricing aligns with this structural advantage and recent primary consolidation. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though the district’s consistent partisan pattern and incumbency edge limit realistic paths to an upset before the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$63,531終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda secured renomination in the August 8 primary with over 91 percent of the vote against minor challengers, while Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa advanced unopposed as the GOP nominee. The district’s D+12 Partisan Voter Index, combined with Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point margin and Tokuda’s 66.5 percent win in 2024, underpins the strong Democratic baseline. Race raters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, and forecasts project Tokuda capturing roughly 75 percent of the general-election vote. Trader pricing aligns with this structural advantage and recent primary consolidation. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though the district’s consistent partisan pattern and incumbency edge limit realistic paths to an upset before the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$63,531終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda secured renomination in the August 8 primary with over 91 percent of the vote against minor challengers, while Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa advanced unopposed as the GOP nominee. The district’s D+12 Partisan Voter Index, combined with Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point margin and Tokuda’s 66.5 percent win in 2024, underpins the strong Democratic baseline. Race raters across Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, and forecasts project Tokuda capturing roughly 75 percent of the general-election vote. Trader pricing aligns with this structural advantage and recent primary consolidation. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the margin, though the district’s consistent partisan pattern and incumbency edge limit realistic paths to an upset before the November 3 contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問