Hawaii’s Second Congressional District remains a reliably Democratic seat, with the party’s 92.5 percent implied probability reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and the absence of any competitive Republican challenger ahead of the 2026 midterms. The seat has been held by Democrats for decades, supported by a voter base that favors the party in both presidential and congressional races by wide margins. No recent polling, candidate announcements, or legislative developments have altered this baseline outlook. A significant shift would require an unforeseen scandal involving the likely Democratic nominee, a late surge by an untested Republican, or court-ordered redistricting that materially changes the district’s composition before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$53,097 Vol.
$53,097 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$53,097 Vol.
$53,097 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$42,836 Vol.
93%
共和党
$10,261 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii’s Second Congressional District remains a reliably Democratic seat, with the party’s 92.5 percent implied probability reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and the absence of any competitive Republican challenger ahead of the 2026 midterms. The seat has been held by Democrats for decades, supported by a voter base that favors the party in both presidential and congressional races by wide margins. No recent polling, candidate announcements, or legislative developments have altered this baseline outlook. A significant shift would require an unforeseen scandal involving the likely Democratic nominee, a late surge by an untested Republican, or court-ordered redistricting that materially changes the district’s composition before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$53,097終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii’s Second Congressional District remains a reliably Democratic seat, with the party’s 92.5 percent implied probability reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and the absence of any competitive Republican challenger ahead of the 2026 midterms. The seat has been held by Democrats for decades, supported by a voter base that favors the party in both presidential and congressional races by wide margins. No recent polling, candidate announcements, or legislative developments have altered this baseline outlook. A significant shift would require an unforeseen scandal involving the likely Democratic nominee, a late surge by an untested Republican, or court-ordered redistricting that materially changes the district’s composition before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$53,097終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii’s Second Congressional District remains a reliably Democratic seat, with the party’s 92.5 percent implied probability reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean and the absence of any competitive Republican challenger ahead of the 2026 midterms. The seat has been held by Democrats for decades, supported by a voter base that favors the party in both presidential and congressional races by wide margins. No recent polling, candidate announcements, or legislative developments have altered this baseline outlook. A significant shift would require an unforeseen scandal involving the likely Democratic nominee, a late surge by an untested Republican, or court-ordered redistricting that materially changes the district’s composition before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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