Current National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance points to a highest temperature in the upper 70s to low 80s for Chicago on August 15, with lake-breeze moderation from Lake Michigan and variable cloud cover limiting peak solar heating. These conditions keep implied probabilities highest for the 78–81 °F bins, as traders weigh modest warming potential against persistent onshore flow and possible afternoon convection that could cap the daily maximum. Historical August normals near 83 °F provide context, but recent pattern shifts favor slightly cooler outcomes. Differentiation between the closely matched leading ranges hinges on precise timing of any breaks in cloud cover or shifts in wind direction, with updated model runs and official observations expected to refine the final recorded high before market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月15日のシカゴの最高気温は？
8月15日のシカゴの最高気温は？
80～81°F 37%
78〜79°F 29%
82〜83°F 17%
76〜77°F 6.2%
新規
$12,074 Vol.
新規
$12,074 Vol.
2026/08/15
華氏75度以下
2%
76〜77°F
6%
78〜79°F
29%
80～81°F
37%
82〜83°F
17%
84〜85°F
4%
86〜87°F
1%
88〜89°F
<1%
90～91°F
<1%
92〜93°F
<1%
94°F以上
<1%
80～81°F 37%
78〜79°F 29%
82〜83°F 17%
76〜77°F 6.2%
新規
$12,074 Vol.
新規
$12,074 Vol.
2026/08/15
華氏75度以下
$1,809 Vol.
2%
76〜77°F
$1,863 Vol.
6%
78〜79°F
$1,499 Vol.
29%
80～81°F
$1,838 Vol.
37%
82〜83°F
$939 Vol.
17%
84〜85°F
$1,191 Vol.
4%
86〜87°F
$1,649 Vol.
1%
88〜89°F
$585 Vol.
<1%
90～91°F
$167 Vol.
<1%
92〜93°F
$365 Vol.
<1%
94°F以上
$168 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance points to a highest temperature in the upper 70s to low 80s for Chicago on August 15, with lake-breeze moderation from Lake Michigan and variable cloud cover limiting peak solar heating. These conditions keep implied probabilities highest for the 78–81 °F bins, as traders weigh modest warming potential against persistent onshore flow and possible afternoon convection that could cap the daily maximum. Historical August normals near 83 °F provide context, but recent pattern shifts favor slightly cooler outcomes. Differentiation between the closely matched leading ranges hinges on precise timing of any breaks in cloud cover or shifts in wind direction, with updated model runs and official observations expected to refine the final recorded high before market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
音量
$12,074終了日
2026/08/15マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance points to a highest temperature in the upper 70s to low 80s for Chicago on August 15, with lake-breeze moderation from Lake Michigan and variable cloud cover limiting peak solar heating. These conditions keep implied probabilities highest for the 78–81 °F bins, as traders weigh modest warming potential against persistent onshore flow and possible afternoon convection that could cap the daily maximum. Historical August normals near 83 °F provide context, but recent pattern shifts favor slightly cooler outcomes. Differentiation between the closely matched leading ranges hinges on precise timing of any breaks in cloud cover or shifts in wind direction, with updated model runs and official observations expected to refine the final recorded high before market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$12,074終了日
2026/08/15マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 PM ETCurrent National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance points to a highest temperature in the upper 70s to low 80s for Chicago on August 15, with lake-breeze moderation from Lake Michigan and variable cloud cover limiting peak solar heating. These conditions keep implied probabilities highest for the 78–81 °F bins, as traders weigh modest warming potential against persistent onshore flow and possible afternoon convection that could cap the daily maximum. Historical August normals near 83 °F provide context, but recent pattern shifts favor slightly cooler outcomes. Differentiation between the closely matched leading ranges hinges on precise timing of any breaks in cloud cover or shifts in wind direction, with updated model runs and official observations expected to refine the final recorded high before market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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