Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daily maximum near 23–25°C in Madrid for May 18, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and moderate westerly flow that limits daytime heating. These model runs place the highest probability on 24°C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probability, while supporting 23°C and 25°C as the next most likely outcomes. Historical May climatology at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport shows average highs around 22–24°C, providing a baseline against which current guidance sits slightly above normal. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily ahead of final verification, with uncertainty remaining over minor shifts in cloud cover or wind that could alter the observed peak by 1–2°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月18日のマドリードの最高気温は?
24°C 47%
23°C 28%
25°C 19%
22°C 8%
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
8%
23°C
28%
24°C
47%
25°C
19%
26°C
5%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
24°C 47%
23°C 28%
25°C 19%
22°C 8%
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
8%
23°C
28%
24°C
47%
25°C
19%
26°C
5%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daily maximum near 23–25°C in Madrid for May 18, driven by stable high-pressure conditions and moderate westerly flow that limits daytime heating. These model runs place the highest probability on 24°C, aligning with the market’s leading implied probability, while supporting 23°C and 25°C as the next most likely outcomes. Historical May climatology at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport shows average highs around 22–24°C, providing a baseline against which current guidance sits slightly above normal. Traders are weighting the latest model consensus heavily ahead of final verification, with uncertainty remaining over minor shifts in cloud cover or wind that could alter the observed peak by 1–2°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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