Recent ensemble forecasts from major models indicate Moscow highs on June 13 will likely peak in the mid-to-upper 20s °C, with 26–28 °C outcomes favored due to a mix of daytime solar heating under partly cloudy skies and scattered thundershowers that limit peak warmth. Current conditions feature above-average temperatures from a persistent warm air mass, but increasing low-level moisture and easterly flow are expected to promote convective clouds and brief rain, capping maxima below 30 °C in most runs. Differentiation among nearby bins hinges on exact timing of instability, cloud fraction, and boundary-layer mixing; drier scenarios could push readings toward 29 °C while stronger showers favor 25–26 °C. Updated model guidance and surface observations in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.