Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency establish a 26°C maximum for Tokyo on June 11, 2026, aligning precisely with the market’s 100% implied probability. Stable atmospheric conditions, consistent with early June climatology for the Kanto region and daily normals near 25.8°C, underpin this outlook, with recent model runs showing limited variability in daytime highs. Traders view the official guidance as highly reliable given the narrow uncertainty range typical for short-term temperature forecasts. Only substantial deviations in actual station measurements, such as localized urban heat effects or unexpected frontal shifts, could realistically shift the recorded high away from 26°C before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 11?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 11?
26°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$128,298 Vol.
$128,298 Vol.
2026/06/11
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$128,298 Vol.
$128,298 Vol.
2026/06/11
19°C or below
$623 Vol.
No
20°C
$712 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,772 Vol.
No
22°C
$12,165 Vol.
No
23°C
$10,994 Vol.
No
24°C
$16,393 Vol.
No
25°C
$15,969 Vol.
No
26°C
$21,278 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$17,840 Vol.
No
28°C
$19,592 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$10,959 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency establish a 26°C maximum for Tokyo on June 11, 2026, aligning precisely with the market’s 100% implied probability. Stable atmospheric conditions, consistent with early June climatology for the Kanto region and daily normals near 25.8°C, underpin this outlook, with recent model runs showing limited variability in daytime highs. Traders view the official guidance as highly reliable given the narrow uncertainty range typical for short-term temperature forecasts. Only substantial deviations in actual station measurements, such as localized urban heat effects or unexpected frontal shifts, could realistically shift the recorded high away from 26°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jun 9, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
音量
$128,298終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 12:26 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency establish a 26°C maximum for Tokyo on June 11, 2026, aligning precisely with the market’s 100% implied probability. Stable atmospheric conditions, consistent with early June climatology for the Kanto region and daily normals near 25.8°C, underpin this outlook, with recent model runs showing limited variability in daytime highs. Traders view the official guidance as highly reliable given the narrow uncertainty range typical for short-term temperature forecasts. Only substantial deviations in actual station measurements, such as localized urban heat effects or unexpected frontal shifts, could realistically shift the recorded high away from 26°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$128,298終了日
2026/06/11マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 12:26 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency establish a 26°C maximum for Tokyo on June 11, 2026, aligning precisely with the market’s 100% implied probability. Stable atmospheric conditions, consistent with early June climatology for the Kanto region and daily normals near 25.8°C, underpin this outlook, with recent model runs showing limited variability in daytime highs. Traders view the official guidance as highly reliable given the narrow uncertainty range typical for short-term temperature forecasts. Only substantial deviations in actual station measurements, such as localized urban heat effects or unexpected frontal shifts, could realistically shift the recorded high away from 26°C before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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