Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers show a narrow range of possible maximum temperatures for Paris on May 19, centered near 17–19 °C, which accounts for the tightly grouped market-implied probabilities. This spread arises from modest differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and light southwesterly flow ahead of a weak Atlantic front, all typical for mid-May in the region. Long-term climatology supports daily highs around 18 °C during this period, while current surface observations indicate no strong ridge or clear-sky setup that would favor 20 °C or above. Updated model runs and surface analyses over the next 48 hours will narrow the outcome range before market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月19日のパリの最高気温は?
17°C 32%
18°C 27%
16°C 20%
19°C 19%
12°C or below
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
6%
16°C
18%
17°C
32%
18°C
27%
19°C
19%
20°C
8%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
17°C 32%
18°C 27%
16°C 20%
19°C 19%
12°C or below
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
6%
16°C
18%
17°C
32%
18°C
27%
19°C
19%
20°C
8%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 17, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers show a narrow range of possible maximum temperatures for Paris on May 19, centered near 17–19 °C, which accounts for the tightly grouped market-implied probabilities. This spread arises from modest differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and light southwesterly flow ahead of a weak Atlantic front, all typical for mid-May in the region. Long-term climatology supports daily highs around 18 °C during this period, while current surface observations indicate no strong ridge or clear-sky setup that would favor 20 °C or above. Updated model runs and surface analyses over the next 48 hours will narrow the outcome range before market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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