Current weather models from the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles indicate strong daytime heating under a building high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean, positioning the 35°C or higher outcome as the market leader at 65.5% implied probability. Clear skies combined with limited sea-breeze influence through midday are expected to accelerate surface warming well above typical May climatological norms of 26–28°C for Tel Aviv. This shift follows cooler maxima of 24–25°C recorded on May 15–16, a change now reflected in trader positioning. Final model runs and real-time observations from Ben Gurion International Airport will determine the precise peak before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日のテルアビブの最高気温は?
35°C or higher 67%
34°C 28%
33°C 7.8%
32°C <1%
$33,630 Vol.
$33,630 Vol.
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
8%
34°C
28%
35°C or higher
67%
35°C or higher 67%
34°C 28%
33°C 7.8%
32°C <1%
$33,630 Vol.
$33,630 Vol.
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
8%
34°C
28%
35°C or higher
67%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current weather models from the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles indicate strong daytime heating under a building high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean, positioning the 35°C or higher outcome as the market leader at 65.5% implied probability. Clear skies combined with limited sea-breeze influence through midday are expected to accelerate surface warming well above typical May climatological norms of 26–28°C for Tel Aviv. This shift follows cooler maxima of 24–25°C recorded on May 15–16, a change now reflected in trader positioning. Final model runs and real-time observations from Ben Gurion International Airport will determine the precise peak before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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