Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts have converged on a daily maximum of 28 °C at the official Otemachi station, driving the 100 % market-implied probability for that exact outcome. A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain is promoting southerly warm advection and strong insolation under mostly clear skies, conditions that align with the upper end of mid-May climatological norms for Tokyo. Short-range numerical weather prediction models show little spread within a narrow 1 °C envelope, and with only hours remaining before the official daily high is recorded, further revisions are unlikely. The primary risk to this consensus remains an unanticipated late adjustment in observational data or localized measurement variation at resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日の東京の最高気温は?
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$88,866 Vol.
$88,866 Vol.
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$88,866 Vol.
$88,866 Vol.
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts have converged on a daily maximum of 28 °C at the official Otemachi station, driving the 100 % market-implied probability for that exact outcome. A persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto Plain is promoting southerly warm advection and strong insolation under mostly clear skies, conditions that align with the upper end of mid-May climatological norms for Tokyo. Short-range numerical weather prediction models show little spread within a narrow 1 °C envelope, and with only hours remaining before the official daily high is recorded, further revisions are unlikely. The primary risk to this consensus remains an unanticipated late adjustment in observational data or localized measurement variation at resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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