Incumbent Darin LaHood’s unopposed Republican primary victory on March 17, 2026, combined with the district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus that the Republican nominee holds a strong advantage heading into the November general election. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent presidential and congressional voting. The Democratic nominee, Paul Nolley, faces the structural barriers typical of an open-seat challenge in a district that has favored Republicans by double-digit margins. No major late-cycle shifts in polling, fundraising, or endorsements have altered this positioning, leaving limited pathways for the underdog to close the gap before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$12,709 Vol.
$12,709 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
87%
民主党
10%
$12,709 Vol.
$12,709 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$3,841 Vol.
87%
民主党
$8,868 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Darin LaHood’s unopposed Republican primary victory on March 17, 2026, combined with the district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus that the Republican nominee holds a strong advantage heading into the November general election. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent presidential and congressional voting. The Democratic nominee, Paul Nolley, faces the structural barriers typical of an open-seat challenge in a district that has favored Republicans by double-digit margins. No major late-cycle shifts in polling, fundraising, or endorsements have altered this positioning, leaving limited pathways for the underdog to close the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$12,709終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Darin LaHood’s unopposed Republican primary victory on March 17, 2026, combined with the district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus that the Republican nominee holds a strong advantage heading into the November general election. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent presidential and congressional voting. The Democratic nominee, Paul Nolley, faces the structural barriers typical of an open-seat challenge in a district that has favored Republicans by double-digit margins. No major late-cycle shifts in polling, fundraising, or endorsements have altered this positioning, leaving limited pathways for the underdog to close the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$12,709終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Darin LaHood’s unopposed Republican primary victory on March 17, 2026, combined with the district’s R+11 Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus that the Republican nominee holds a strong advantage heading into the November general election. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent presidential and congressional voting. The Democratic nominee, Paul Nolley, faces the structural barriers typical of an open-seat challenge in a district that has favored Republicans by double-digit margins. No major late-cycle shifts in polling, fundraising, or endorsements have altered this positioning, leaving limited pathways for the underdog to close the gap before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問