The Republican hold on Illinois’s 16th congressional district rests on its consistent partisan lean and the strength of incumbent Darin LaHood, who advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary. The Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Republican, reflecting voting patterns across its rural northern counties that have delivered large margins to GOP candidates in recent cycles. Democrat Paul Nolley is the only general-election opponent on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and no major polling or fundraising shifts have emerged to alter the district’s trajectory. Traders therefore assign the Republican Party an 87–88 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for this safely red seat.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$12,709 Vol.
$12,709 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
88%
民主党
10%
$12,709 Vol.
$12,709 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$3,841 Vol.
88%
民主党
$8,868 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican hold on Illinois’s 16th congressional district rests on its consistent partisan lean and the strength of incumbent Darin LaHood, who advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary. The Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Republican, reflecting voting patterns across its rural northern counties that have delivered large margins to GOP candidates in recent cycles. Democrat Paul Nolley is the only general-election opponent on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and no major polling or fundraising shifts have emerged to alter the district’s trajectory. Traders therefore assign the Republican Party an 87–88 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for this safely red seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$12,709終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican hold on Illinois’s 16th congressional district rests on its consistent partisan lean and the strength of incumbent Darin LaHood, who advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary. The Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Republican, reflecting voting patterns across its rural northern counties that have delivered large margins to GOP candidates in recent cycles. Democrat Paul Nolley is the only general-election opponent on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and no major polling or fundraising shifts have emerged to alter the district’s trajectory. Traders therefore assign the Republican Party an 87–88 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for this safely red seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$12,709終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican hold on Illinois’s 16th congressional district rests on its consistent partisan lean and the strength of incumbent Darin LaHood, who advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary. The Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Republican, reflecting voting patterns across its rural northern counties that have delivered large margins to GOP candidates in recent cycles. Democrat Paul Nolley is the only general-election opponent on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and no major polling or fundraising shifts have emerged to alter the district’s trajectory. Traders therefore assign the Republican Party an 87–88 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for this safely red seat.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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