Trader consensus assigns an 87.5% implied probability to Khamenei issuing fewer than five posts during the May 12–19, 2026 window, driven by his longstanding pattern of infrequent official communications on X and other platforms. As Supreme Leader, he relies primarily on formal statements, Friday sermons, and curated releases through institutional channels rather than routine social media activity. No major diplomatic summits, military developments, or domestic policy announcements in the past week have prompted a departure from this baseline. Historical posting rates during comparable periods of regional stability or low-intensity tensions show similar restraint, with spikes occurring only after direct escalations involving Iran or its proxies. Higher-volume outcomes remain priced below 7% because sustained daily engagement would represent a structural shift inconsistent with his established role and communication preferences.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日<5 82%
5-9 4%
15-19 2.4%
10-14 1.5%
$11,830 Vol.
$11,830 Vol.
2026/05/19
<5
82%
5-9
10%
10-14
1%
15-19
2%
20-24
1%
25-29
1%
30-34
1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
1%
50-54
1%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
<5 82%
5-9 4%
15-19 2.4%
10-14 1.5%
$11,830 Vol.
$11,830 Vol.
2026/05/19
<5
$2,263 Vol.
82%
5-9
$1,991 Vol.
10%
10-14
$981 Vol.
1%
15-19
$1,493 Vol.
2%
20-24
$946 Vol.
1%
25-29
$401 Vol.
1%
30-34
$458 Vol.
1%
35-39
$443 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$596 Vol.
<1%
45-49
$484 Vol.
1%
50-54
$498 Vol.
1%
55-59
$609 Vol.
<1%
60+
$666 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus assigns an 87.5% implied probability to Khamenei issuing fewer than five posts during the May 12–19, 2026 window, driven by his longstanding pattern of infrequent official communications on X and other platforms. As Supreme Leader, he relies primarily on formal statements, Friday sermons, and curated releases through institutional channels rather than routine social media activity. No major diplomatic summits, military developments, or domestic policy announcements in the past week have prompted a departure from this baseline. Historical posting rates during comparable periods of regional stability or low-intensity tensions show similar restraint, with spikes occurring only after direct escalations involving Iran or its proxies. Higher-volume outcomes remain priced below 7% because sustained daily engagement would represent a structural shift inconsistent with his established role and communication preferences.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ET
音量
$11,830終了日
2026/05/19マーケット開始日
May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus assigns an 87.5% implied probability to Khamenei issuing fewer than five posts during the May 12–19, 2026 window, driven by his longstanding pattern of infrequent official communications on X and other platforms. As Supreme Leader, he relies primarily on formal statements, Friday sermons, and curated releases through institutional channels rather than routine social media activity. No major diplomatic summits, military developments, or domestic policy announcements in the past week have prompted a departure from this baseline. Historical posting rates during comparable periods of regional stability or low-intensity tensions show similar restraint, with spikes occurring only after direct escalations involving Iran or its proxies. Higher-volume outcomes remain priced below 7% because sustained daily engagement would represent a structural shift inconsistent with his established role and communication preferences.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
音量
$11,830終了日
2026/05/19マーケット開始日
May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns an 87.5% implied probability to Khamenei issuing fewer than five posts during the May 12–19, 2026 window, driven by his longstanding pattern of infrequent official communications on X and other platforms. As Supreme Leader, he relies primarily on formal statements, Friday sermons, and curated releases through institutional channels rather than routine social media activity. No major diplomatic summits, military developments, or domestic policy announcements in the past week have prompted a departure from this baseline. Historical posting rates during comparable periods of regional stability or low-intensity tensions show similar restraint, with spikes occurring only after direct escalations involving Iran or its proxies. Higher-volume outcomes remain priced below 7% because sustained daily engagement would represent a structural shift inconsistent with his established role and communication preferences.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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