Taiwan's constitutional process for presidential impeachment requires a three-quarters supermajority in the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, a threshold the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party coalition currently lacks despite initiating proceedings in December 2025. The decisive roll-call vote scheduled for May 19 will almost certainly fall short, leaving no procedural path for removal before the June 30 cutoff. Ongoing hearings have highlighted partisan divisions but produced no shift in seat arithmetic or cross-party support. While late-stage defections or procedural delays remain theoretically possible, historical patterns and the slim opposition margin make any reversal before the deadline highly improbable, aligning with the 98 percent trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$618,916 Vol.
$618,916 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$618,916 Vol.
$618,916 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's constitutional process for presidential impeachment requires a three-quarters supermajority in the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, a threshold the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party coalition currently lacks despite initiating proceedings in December 2025. The decisive roll-call vote scheduled for May 19 will almost certainly fall short, leaving no procedural path for removal before the June 30 cutoff. Ongoing hearings have highlighted partisan divisions but produced no shift in seat arithmetic or cross-party support. While late-stage defections or procedural delays remain theoretically possible, historical patterns and the slim opposition margin make any reversal before the deadline highly improbable, aligning with the 98 percent trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
音量
$618,916終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Taiwan's constitutional process for presidential impeachment requires a three-quarters supermajority in the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, a threshold the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party coalition currently lacks despite initiating proceedings in December 2025. The decisive roll-call vote scheduled for May 19 will almost certainly fall short, leaving no procedural path for removal before the June 30 cutoff. Ongoing hearings have highlighted partisan divisions but produced no shift in seat arithmetic or cross-party support. While late-stage defections or procedural delays remain theoretically possible, historical patterns and the slim opposition margin make any reversal before the deadline highly improbable, aligning with the 98 percent trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
音量
$618,916終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Taiwan's constitutional process for presidential impeachment requires a three-quarters supermajority in the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan, a threshold the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party coalition currently lacks despite initiating proceedings in December 2025. The decisive roll-call vote scheduled for May 19 will almost certainly fall short, leaving no procedural path for removal before the June 30 cutoff. Ongoing hearings have highlighted partisan divisions but produced no shift in seat arithmetic or cross-party support. While late-stage defections or procedural delays remain theoretically possible, historical patterns and the slim opposition margin make any reversal before the deadline highly improbable, aligning with the 98 percent trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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