**Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 3, 2026, will likely settle near 25–26 °C, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 26 °C (50.5 % implied probability).** Persistent warm, humid air under northeast flow, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms, limits nocturnal radiative cooling and supports elevated minimum temperatures. Official guidance and ensemble outputs show dew points remaining in the low-to-mid 20s °C, which caps how far temperatures can fall overnight. Climatologically, early-September Shanghai minima average near 23 °C, but the current pattern features above-normal warmth tied to a stalled frontal boundary and moist southerly or easterly return flow. Latest runs from regional and global models cluster overnight lows between 24–26 °C, with limited spread that explains why 25 °C (17.5 %) and 27 °C (19.5 %) hold secondary support while probabilities drop sharply outside 24–28 °C. No strong cold-air intrusion is expected before resolution, keeping the distribution tightly centered on the current leading outcomes. Updated model guidance and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals for any late adjustments.