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icon for モンタナ州上院議員選挙の勝者
選挙·中間選考

モンタナ州上院議員選挙の勝者

icon for モンタナ州上院議員選挙の勝者
選挙·中間選考

モンタナ州上院議員選挙の勝者

共和党 81%

無所属 15.3%

民主党 3.5%

Polymarket

$72,311 Vol.

共和党 81%

無所属 15.3%

民主党 3.5%

Polymarket

$72,311 Vol.

icon for 共和党

共和党

$37,368 Vol.

81%

icon for 無所属

無所属

$1,493 Vol.

39%

icon for 民主党

民主党

$33,450 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal in early March opened Montana's 2026 U.S. Senate seat, propelling former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme as the GOP frontrunner with endorsements from Daines, President Trump, Governor Gianforte, and Americans for Prosperity last week, bolstering trader consensus at 80.5% for a Republican winner in this reliably red state. Independent Seth Bodnar, ex-University of Montana president, commands top fundraising at $1.35 million through March and cross-aisle backing from ex-Senator Jon Tester and Andrew Yang, fueling his 39.2% odds amid potential vote-splitting in the June 2 primaries. Democrats trail at 3.5%, hampered by underfunded contenders like Reilly Neill facing intraparty friction over Bodnar support. Ratings hold at Likely Republican, with general election November 3.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$72,311
終了日
2026/11/03
マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Steve Daines' surprise withdrawal in early March opened Montana's 2026 U.S. Senate seat, propelling former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme as the GOP frontrunner with endorsements from Daines, President Trump, Governor Gianforte, and Americans for Prosperity last week, bolstering trader consensus at 80.5% for a Republican winner in this reliably red state. Independent Seth Bodnar, ex-University of Montana president, commands top fundraising at $1.35 million through March and cross-aisle backing from ex-Senator Jon Tester and Andrew Yang, fueling his 39.2% odds amid potential vote-splitting in the June 2 primaries. Democrats trail at 3.5%, hampered by underfunded contenders like Reilly Neill facing intraparty friction over Bodnar support. Ratings hold at Likely Republican, with general election November 3.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$72,311
終了日
2026/11/03
マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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よくある質問

「モンタナ州上院議員選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上の3個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「共和党」で81%、次いで「無所属」が39%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、81¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に81%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「モンタナ州上院議員選挙の勝者」は$72.3Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Oct 13, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「モンタナ州上院議員選挙の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている3個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「モンタナ州上院議員選挙の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「共和党」で81%であり、市場がこの結果に81%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「無所属」で39%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「モンタナ州上院議員選挙の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。