PL’s commanding position in the October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are renewed, stems from its expanded congressional bloc following recent party switches and its slate of competitive candidates across key states. Traders price the Liberal Party at 78.5 percent implied probability because its national organization and alignment with right-leaning presidential frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro have produced leads or strong challenges in multiple districts, while the fragmented field leaves smaller shares for REPUBLICANOS, PSD, MDB, and others. Recent candidate registrations through the April deadline reinforced this edge without major new disruptions in the past month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日PL 78%
REPUBLICANOS 11.3%
PSD 5.7%
ブラジル民主運動（MDB） 4.7%
$253,943 Vol.
$253,943 Vol.
2026/10/04
PL
78%
REPUBLICANOS
11%
PSD
6%
ブラジル民主運動（MDB）
5%
UNIÃO
4%
PT
3%
ポデモス
2%
PSB
1%
NOVO
1%
PSDB
<1%
PP
<1%
PDT
<1%
PL 78%
REPUBLICANOS 11.3%
PSD 5.7%
ブラジル民主運動（MDB） 4.7%
$253,943 Vol.
$253,943 Vol.
2026/10/04
PL
$242,655 Vol.
78%
REPUBLICANOS
$1,075 Vol.
11%
PSD
$1,046 Vol.
6%
ブラジル民主運動（MDB）
$1,007 Vol.
5%
UNIÃO
$958 Vol.
4%
PT
$1,040 Vol.
3%
ポデモス
$1,156 Vol.
2%
PSB
$1,071 Vol.
1%
NOVO
$1,134 Vol.
1%
PSDB
$1,023 Vol.
<1%
PP
$935 Vol.
<1%
PDT
$843 Vol.
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL’s commanding position in the October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are renewed, stems from its expanded congressional bloc following recent party switches and its slate of competitive candidates across key states. Traders price the Liberal Party at 78.5 percent implied probability because its national organization and alignment with right-leaning presidential frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro have produced leads or strong challenges in multiple districts, while the fragmented field leaves smaller shares for REPUBLICANOS, PSD, MDB, and others. Recent candidate registrations through the April deadline reinforced this edge without major new disruptions in the past month.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$253,943終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).PL’s commanding position in the October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are renewed, stems from its expanded congressional bloc following recent party switches and its slate of competitive candidates across key states. Traders price the Liberal Party at 78.5 percent implied probability because its national organization and alignment with right-leaning presidential frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro have produced leads or strong challenges in multiple districts, while the fragmented field leaves smaller shares for REPUBLICANOS, PSD, MDB, and others. Recent candidate registrations through the April deadline reinforced this edge without major new disruptions in the past month.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$253,943終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...PL’s commanding position in the October 2026 Senate contest, where 54 of 81 seats are renewed, stems from its expanded congressional bloc following recent party switches and its slate of competitive candidates across key states. Traders price the Liberal Party at 78.5 percent implied probability because its national organization and alignment with right-leaning presidential frontrunner Flávio Bolsonaro have produced leads or strong challenges in multiple districts, while the fragmented field leaves smaller shares for REPUBLICANOS, PSD, MDB, and others. Recent candidate registrations through the April deadline reinforced this edge without major new disruptions in the past month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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