The Democratic Party of Korea enters the June 3 by-elections holding 13 of the 14 contested National Assembly seats, most of which were won outright in the prior general election. This structural advantage, combined with President Lee Jae-myung’s approval ratings near 60 percent and the party’s completed candidate selections for key districts, underpins trader consensus favoring 10 or more seats at 72.3 percent. The main opposition People Power Party remains fragmented following earlier crises, limiting its ability to challenge DP strongholds even in traditional conservative areas like Busan. Concurrent local elections further amplify the ruling party’s organizational edge and turnout dynamics. No major scandals or shifts in opposition unity have emerged in recent weeks to alter this positioning.