President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing after a three-decade moratorium remains the central catalyst shaping trader views on whether an explosive test occurs by December 31, 2026. The announcement cited testing by other nations and prompted preparations at sites such as the Nevada National Security Site, though officials have stressed that initial activities could involve subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. Congressional opposition, including proposed legislation to enforce the moratorium, adds procedural uncertainty, while technical and diplomatic timelines constrain rapid execution. No full-yield test has taken place through mid-2026, leaving room for late-year developments in appropriations, international responses, or policy adjustments to influence the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$770,068 Vol.
2026/12/30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
4%
$770,068 Vol.
2026年9月30日
$57,189 Vol.
1%
2026年12月31日
$52,068 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing after a three-decade moratorium remains the central catalyst shaping trader views on whether an explosive test occurs by December 31, 2026. The announcement cited testing by other nations and prompted preparations at sites such as the Nevada National Security Site, though officials have stressed that initial activities could involve subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. Congressional opposition, including proposed legislation to enforce the moratorium, adds procedural uncertainty, while technical and diplomatic timelines constrain rapid execution. No full-yield test has taken place through mid-2026, leaving room for late-year developments in appropriations, international responses, or policy adjustments to influence the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
音量
$770,068終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing after a three-decade moratorium remains the central catalyst shaping trader views on whether an explosive test occurs by December 31, 2026. The announcement cited testing by other nations and prompted preparations at sites such as the Nevada National Security Site, though officials have stressed that initial activities could involve subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. Congressional opposition, including proposed legislation to enforce the moratorium, adds procedural uncertainty, while technical and diplomatic timelines constrain rapid execution. No full-yield test has taken place through mid-2026, leaving room for late-year developments in appropriations, international responses, or policy adjustments to influence the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$770,068終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing after a three-decade moratorium remains the central catalyst shaping trader views on whether an explosive test occurs by December 31, 2026. The announcement cited testing by other nations and prompted preparations at sites such as the Nevada National Security Site, though officials have stressed that initial activities could involve subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. Congressional opposition, including proposed legislation to enforce the moratorium, adds procedural uncertainty, while technical and diplomatic timelines constrain rapid execution. No full-yield test has taken place through mid-2026, leaving room for late-year developments in appropriations, international responses, or policy adjustments to influence the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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