Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who secured the Liberal Party nomination and explicit backing from his father Jair Bolsonaro after the former president's ineligibility. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from April and March, show the pair statistically tied at roughly 46 percent each in hypothetical runoffs, reflecting a polarized electorate where economic pressures and security concerns drive voter preferences. Other declared contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD and Romeu Zema of NOVO add fragmentation that could influence first-round vote shares on October 4. With the runoff scheduled for October 25 if no candidate exceeds 50 percent, trader consensus on advancement probabilities hinges on whether endorsements or economic indicators consolidate support for these two frontrunners ahead of the October ballot.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$321,225 Vol.
2026/10/04
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルバ
84%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
72%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
8%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
4%
ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
3%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
3%
$321,225 Vol.
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルバ
$135,114 Vol.
84%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$20,621 Vol.
72%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$51,472 Vol.
8%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
$26,646 Vol.
4%
ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
$11,325 Vol.
3%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
$76,048 Vol.
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who secured the Liberal Party nomination and explicit backing from his father Jair Bolsonaro after the former president's ineligibility. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from April and March, show the pair statistically tied at roughly 46 percent each in hypothetical runoffs, reflecting a polarized electorate where economic pressures and security concerns drive voter preferences. Other declared contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD and Romeu Zema of NOVO add fragmentation that could influence first-round vote shares on October 4. With the runoff scheduled for October 25 if no candidate exceeds 50 percent, trader consensus on advancement probabilities hinges on whether endorsements or economic indicators consolidate support for these two frontrunners ahead of the October ballot.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ET
音量
$321,225終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who secured the Liberal Party nomination and explicit backing from his father Jair Bolsonaro after the former president's ineligibility. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from April and March, show the pair statistically tied at roughly 46 percent each in hypothetical runoffs, reflecting a polarized electorate where economic pressures and security concerns drive voter preferences. Other declared contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD and Romeu Zema of NOVO add fragmentation that could influence first-round vote shares on October 4. With the runoff scheduled for October 25 if no candidate exceeds 50 percent, trader consensus on advancement probabilities hinges on whether endorsements or economic indicators consolidate support for these two frontrunners ahead of the October ballot.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$321,225終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who secured the Liberal Party nomination and explicit backing from his father Jair Bolsonaro after the former president's ineligibility. Recent national polls, including AtlasIntel and BTG Nexus surveys from April and March, show the pair statistically tied at roughly 46 percent each in hypothetical runoffs, reflecting a polarized electorate where economic pressures and security concerns drive voter preferences. Other declared contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD and Romeu Zema of NOVO add fragmentation that could influence first-round vote shares on October 4. With the runoff scheduled for October 25 if no candidate exceeds 50 percent, trader consensus on advancement probabilities hinges on whether endorsements or economic indicators consolidate support for these two frontrunners ahead of the October ballot.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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