Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the opposition banner after his father’s endorsement consolidated right-wing support. Recent polling shows the pair statistically tied in simulated runoffs, with Lula holding a narrow first-round edge amid concerns over economic growth, public security, and his age. Other declared candidates, including Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, remain in single digits and could fragment conservative votes or influence coalition dynamics ahead of the potential October 25 runoff. Trader focus centers on whether endorsements from state governors or late economic data will shift first-round positioning before ballots close.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$321,225 Vol.
2026/10/04
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルバ
84%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
72%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
8%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
4%
ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
3%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
3%
$321,225 Vol.
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルバ
$135,114 Vol.
84%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$20,621 Vol.
72%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
$51,472 Vol.
8%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
$26,646 Vol.
4%
ジャイール・ボルソナーロ
$11,325 Vol.
3%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
$76,048 Vol.
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the opposition banner after his father’s endorsement consolidated right-wing support. Recent polling shows the pair statistically tied in simulated runoffs, with Lula holding a narrow first-round edge amid concerns over economic growth, public security, and his age. Other declared candidates, including Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, remain in single digits and could fragment conservative votes or influence coalition dynamics ahead of the potential October 25 runoff. Trader focus centers on whether endorsements from state governors or late economic data will shift first-round positioning before ballots close.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
音量
$321,225終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the opposition banner after his father’s endorsement consolidated right-wing support. Recent polling shows the pair statistically tied in simulated runoffs, with Lula holding a narrow first-round edge amid concerns over economic growth, public security, and his age. Other declared candidates, including Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, remain in single digits and could fragment conservative votes or influence coalition dynamics ahead of the potential October 25 runoff. Trader focus centers on whether endorsements from state governors or late economic data will shift first-round positioning before ballots close.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$321,225終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the opposition banner after his father’s endorsement consolidated right-wing support. Recent polling shows the pair statistically tied in simulated runoffs, with Lula holding a narrow first-round edge amid concerns over economic growth, public security, and his age. Other declared candidates, including Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, remain in single digits and could fragment conservative votes or influence coalition dynamics ahead of the potential October 25 runoff. Trader focus centers on whether endorsements from state governors or late economic data will shift first-round positioning before ballots close.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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