Laura Gillen holds an 85% implied probability in the June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 4th congressional district, driven by her substantial fundraising edge of over $2 million in receipts and $1.5 million cash on hand, along with an early endorsement from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs. This incumbency advantage in a low-turnout primary has kept her well ahead of challengers despite criticism over her January 2026 vote supporting Department of Homeland Security funding that included ICE appropriations. Nicholas Sciretta trails at 11%, Taylor Darling at 5%, and Gian Jones at under 1%, with the fragmented field of lesser-known opponents limiting any single challenger’s ability to consolidate opposition votes ahead of the primary. No recent public polls have altered this trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ローラ・ギレン 86%
ニコラス・シレッタ 11%
テイラー・ダーリング 4.9%
ジャン・ジョーンズ <1%
$18,895 Vol.
$18,895 Vol.
ローラ・ギレン
86%
ニコラス・シレッタ
11%
テイラー・ダーリング
5%
ジャン・ジョーンズ
<1%
ローラ・ギレン 86%
ニコラス・シレッタ 11%
テイラー・ダーリング 4.9%
ジャン・ジョーンズ <1%
$18,895 Vol.
$18,895 Vol.
ローラ・ギレン
86%
ニコラス・シレッタ
11%
テイラー・ダーリング
5%
ジャン・ジョーンズ
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Laura Gillen holds an 85% implied probability in the June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 4th congressional district, driven by her substantial fundraising edge of over $2 million in receipts and $1.5 million cash on hand, along with an early endorsement from Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs. This incumbency advantage in a low-turnout primary has kept her well ahead of challengers despite criticism over her January 2026 vote supporting Department of Homeland Security funding that included ICE appropriations. Nicholas Sciretta trails at 11%, Taylor Darling at 5%, and Gian Jones at under 1%, with the fragmented field of lesser-known opponents limiting any single challenger’s ability to consolidate opposition votes ahead of the primary. No recent public polls have altered this trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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