KRG leaders have prioritized renewed coordination with Iraq’s federal government in Baghdad rather than secession, as evidenced by recent outreach from KRG President Nechirvan Barzani to the new prime minister and joint handling of oil exports and budget issues. Prolonged internal deadlock over regional government formation since the 2024 elections has further sidelined independence efforts, leaving the KRG focused on economic stabilization and security cooperation. Iranian strikes on Kurdish territory in early 2026 prompted official KRG statements reaffirming commitment to Iraq’s sovereignty and stability. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 91.5% probability for no declaration by December 31, consistent with the absence of any formal moves toward independence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$52,813 Vol.
$52,813 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$52,813 Vol.
$52,813 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.KRG leaders have prioritized renewed coordination with Iraq’s federal government in Baghdad rather than secession, as evidenced by recent outreach from KRG President Nechirvan Barzani to the new prime minister and joint handling of oil exports and budget issues. Prolonged internal deadlock over regional government formation since the 2024 elections has further sidelined independence efforts, leaving the KRG focused on economic stabilization and security cooperation. Iranian strikes on Kurdish territory in early 2026 prompted official KRG statements reaffirming commitment to Iraq’s sovereignty and stability. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 91.5% probability for no declaration by December 31, consistent with the absence of any formal moves toward independence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$52,813終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.KRG leaders have prioritized renewed coordination with Iraq’s federal government in Baghdad rather than secession, as evidenced by recent outreach from KRG President Nechirvan Barzani to the new prime minister and joint handling of oil exports and budget issues. Prolonged internal deadlock over regional government formation since the 2024 elections has further sidelined independence efforts, leaving the KRG focused on economic stabilization and security cooperation. Iranian strikes on Kurdish territory in early 2026 prompted official KRG statements reaffirming commitment to Iraq’s sovereignty and stability. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 91.5% probability for no declaration by December 31, consistent with the absence of any formal moves toward independence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$52,813終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...KRG leaders have prioritized renewed coordination with Iraq’s federal government in Baghdad rather than secession, as evidenced by recent outreach from KRG President Nechirvan Barzani to the new prime minister and joint handling of oil exports and budget issues. Prolonged internal deadlock over regional government formation since the 2024 elections has further sidelined independence efforts, leaving the KRG focused on economic stabilization and security cooperation. Iranian strikes on Kurdish territory in early 2026 prompted official KRG statements reaffirming commitment to Iraq’s sovereignty and stability. These factors align with trader consensus reflected in the 91.5% probability for no declaration by December 31, consistent with the absence of any formal moves toward independence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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