Recent petition drives in Alberta, including a May 2026 filing of over 300,000 signatures to force an independence ballot as early as October, have balanced trader odds near even. Alberta's October 2026 referendum on constitutional questions could advance secession talks if voters approve related measures, while Premier Danielle Smith's conditional support adds momentum. In Quebec, the Parti Québécois's pledge for a sovereignty vote after the October 2026 provincial election introduces further uncertainty, though low polling support for independence and legal precedents on referendum thresholds constrain expectations. Court rulings on petition validity, signature verification outcomes, and election results in both provinces remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before the 2027 cutoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$422,616 Vol.
$422,616 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$422,616 Vol.
$422,616 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent petition drives in Alberta, including a May 2026 filing of over 300,000 signatures to force an independence ballot as early as October, have balanced trader odds near even. Alberta's October 2026 referendum on constitutional questions could advance secession talks if voters approve related measures, while Premier Danielle Smith's conditional support adds momentum. In Quebec, the Parti Québécois's pledge for a sovereignty vote after the October 2026 provincial election introduces further uncertainty, though low polling support for independence and legal precedents on referendum thresholds constrain expectations. Court rulings on petition validity, signature verification outcomes, and election results in both provinces remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before the 2027 cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ET
音量
$422,616終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent petition drives in Alberta, including a May 2026 filing of over 300,000 signatures to force an independence ballot as early as October, have balanced trader odds near even. Alberta's October 2026 referendum on constitutional questions could advance secession talks if voters approve related measures, while Premier Danielle Smith's conditional support adds momentum. In Quebec, the Parti Québécois's pledge for a sovereignty vote after the October 2026 provincial election introduces further uncertainty, though low polling support for independence and legal precedents on referendum thresholds constrain expectations. Court rulings on petition validity, signature verification outcomes, and election results in both provinces remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before the 2027 cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$422,616終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent petition drives in Alberta, including a May 2026 filing of over 300,000 signatures to force an independence ballot as early as October, have balanced trader odds near even. Alberta's October 2026 referendum on constitutional questions could advance secession talks if voters approve related measures, while Premier Danielle Smith's conditional support adds momentum. In Quebec, the Parti Québécois's pledge for a sovereignty vote after the October 2026 provincial election introduces further uncertainty, though low polling support for independence and legal precedents on referendum thresholds constrain expectations. Court rulings on petition validity, signature verification outcomes, and election results in both provinces remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before the 2027 cutoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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