The Bank of Canada’s April 29 hold of the policy rate at 2.25 percent, coupled with persistent uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and Middle East energy-price pressures, underpins the 96.2 percent market-implied odds of no change at the June 10 fixed announcement date. Recent data reinforce this positioning: March headline CPI rose to 2.4 percent year-over-year on energy costs while core measures remained near 2.2 percent, April employment declined by 18,000 with unemployment climbing to 6.9 percent, and first-quarter GDP growth tracked a moderate 1.7 percent pace. Traders view these balanced risks as favoring continuity in the current stance rather than an immediate rate adjustment. The primary near-term swing factor remains the April CPI release due May 19, which could either solidify the hold or reopen slim odds of a 25-basis-point cut if labor weakness deepens materially.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No change 96.2%
Increase 2.9%
25 bps decrease 1.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,429 Vol.
$26,429 Vol.
2026/06/10
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
96%
Increase
3%
No change 96.2%
Increase 2.9%
25 bps decrease 1.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,429 Vol.
$26,429 Vol.
2026/06/10
50+ bps decrease
$4,584 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$4,363 Vol.
1%
No change
$9,472 Vol.
96%
Increase
$8,011 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s April 29 hold of the policy rate at 2.25 percent, coupled with persistent uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and Middle East energy-price pressures, underpins the 96.2 percent market-implied odds of no change at the June 10 fixed announcement date. Recent data reinforce this positioning: March headline CPI rose to 2.4 percent year-over-year on energy costs while core measures remained near 2.2 percent, April employment declined by 18,000 with unemployment climbing to 6.9 percent, and first-quarter GDP growth tracked a moderate 1.7 percent pace. Traders view these balanced risks as favoring continuity in the current stance rather than an immediate rate adjustment. The primary near-term swing factor remains the April CPI release due May 19, which could either solidify the hold or reopen slim odds of a 25-basis-point cut if labor weakness deepens materially.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
音量
$26,429終了日
2026/06/10マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s April 29 hold of the policy rate at 2.25 percent, coupled with persistent uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and Middle East energy-price pressures, underpins the 96.2 percent market-implied odds of no change at the June 10 fixed announcement date. Recent data reinforce this positioning: March headline CPI rose to 2.4 percent year-over-year on energy costs while core measures remained near 2.2 percent, April employment declined by 18,000 with unemployment climbing to 6.9 percent, and first-quarter GDP growth tracked a moderate 1.7 percent pace. Traders view these balanced risks as favoring continuity in the current stance rather than an immediate rate adjustment. The primary near-term swing factor remains the April CPI release due May 19, which could either solidify the hold or reopen slim odds of a 25-basis-point cut if labor weakness deepens materially.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$26,429終了日
2026/06/10マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Canada’s April 29 hold of the policy rate at 2.25 percent, coupled with persistent uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and Middle East energy-price pressures, underpins the 96.2 percent market-implied odds of no change at the June 10 fixed announcement date. Recent data reinforce this positioning: March headline CPI rose to 2.4 percent year-over-year on energy costs while core measures remained near 2.2 percent, April employment declined by 18,000 with unemployment climbing to 6.9 percent, and first-quarter GDP growth tracked a moderate 1.7 percent pace. Traders view these balanced risks as favoring continuity in the current stance rather than an immediate rate adjustment. The primary near-term swing factor remains the April CPI release due May 19, which could either solidify the hold or reopen slim odds of a 25-basis-point cut if labor weakness deepens materially.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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