Recent legal setbacks in Alberta have created competitive balance around the 50 percent threshold for a pre-2027 provincial secession referendum. Separatist organizers submitted more than 300,000 signatures in early May 2026 under the Citizen Initiative Act, exceeding the threshold needed to trigger consideration of an October vote on independence. A May 13 court ruling, however, quashed Elections Alberta’s approval of the petition, citing the absence of required consultations with First Nations whose treaty rights could be affected. The provincial government has indicated plans to appeal. Parallel developments in Quebec, where the Parti Québécois could win the October 2026 provincial election and commit to a sovereignty vote, add further uncertainty. Resolution of the Alberta appeal, outcomes of upcoming provincial elections, or formal government scheduling decisions before the end of 2026 remain the primary variables that could shift trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$423,922 Vol.
$423,922 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$423,922 Vol.
$423,922 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent legal setbacks in Alberta have created competitive balance around the 50 percent threshold for a pre-2027 provincial secession referendum. Separatist organizers submitted more than 300,000 signatures in early May 2026 under the Citizen Initiative Act, exceeding the threshold needed to trigger consideration of an October vote on independence. A May 13 court ruling, however, quashed Elections Alberta’s approval of the petition, citing the absence of required consultations with First Nations whose treaty rights could be affected. The provincial government has indicated plans to appeal. Parallel developments in Quebec, where the Parti Québécois could win the October 2026 provincial election and commit to a sovereignty vote, add further uncertainty. Resolution of the Alberta appeal, outcomes of upcoming provincial elections, or formal government scheduling decisions before the end of 2026 remain the primary variables that could shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ET
音量
$423,922終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent legal setbacks in Alberta have created competitive balance around the 50 percent threshold for a pre-2027 provincial secession referendum. Separatist organizers submitted more than 300,000 signatures in early May 2026 under the Citizen Initiative Act, exceeding the threshold needed to trigger consideration of an October vote on independence. A May 13 court ruling, however, quashed Elections Alberta’s approval of the petition, citing the absence of required consultations with First Nations whose treaty rights could be affected. The provincial government has indicated plans to appeal. Parallel developments in Quebec, where the Parti Québécois could win the October 2026 provincial election and commit to a sovereignty vote, add further uncertainty. Resolution of the Alberta appeal, outcomes of upcoming provincial elections, or formal government scheduling decisions before the end of 2026 remain the primary variables that could shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$423,922終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent legal setbacks in Alberta have created competitive balance around the 50 percent threshold for a pre-2027 provincial secession referendum. Separatist organizers submitted more than 300,000 signatures in early May 2026 under the Citizen Initiative Act, exceeding the threshold needed to trigger consideration of an October vote on independence. A May 13 court ruling, however, quashed Elections Alberta’s approval of the petition, citing the absence of required consultations with First Nations whose treaty rights could be affected. The provincial government has indicated plans to appeal. Parallel developments in Quebec, where the Parti Québécois could win the October 2026 provincial election and commit to a sovereignty vote, add further uncertainty. Resolution of the Alberta appeal, outcomes of upcoming provincial elections, or formal government scheduling decisions before the end of 2026 remain the primary variables that could shift trader consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問