Trader consensus prices "No" at 89% for an Iranian agent being formally charged by US federal or state authorities before May 31, driven by the absence of new Department of Justice (DOJ) indictments or announcements in the past month amid ongoing tensions. The latest major legal action was the March 6 conviction of Asif Merchant, a Pakistani IRGC-linked operative, on terrorism and murder-for-hire charges in a foiled plot targeting US politicians including Donald Trump. Recent related developments, like a May 13 guilty plea by an Iranian-American for smuggling an IRGC-tied individual into the US and April arrests for Iran-backed arms trafficking, fall short of qualifying as agent charges. With the deadline approaching and no visible procedural momentum such as unsealed indictments or court filings, traders see slim odds of a shift barring late-breaking enforcement action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/05/31
新規
新規
2026/05/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89% for an Iranian agent being formally charged by US federal or state authorities before May 31, driven by the absence of new Department of Justice (DOJ) indictments or announcements in the past month amid ongoing tensions. The latest major legal action was the March 6 conviction of Asif Merchant, a Pakistani IRGC-linked operative, on terrorism and murder-for-hire charges in a foiled plot targeting US politicians including Donald Trump. Recent related developments, like a May 13 guilty plea by an Iranian-American for smuggling an IRGC-tied individual into the US and April arrests for Iran-backed arms trafficking, fall short of qualifying as agent charges. With the deadline approaching and no visible procedural momentum such as unsealed indictments or court filings, traders see slim odds of a shift barring late-breaking enforcement action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
音量
$4,728終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89% for an Iranian agent being formally charged by US federal or state authorities before May 31, driven by the absence of new Department of Justice (DOJ) indictments or announcements in the past month amid ongoing tensions. The latest major legal action was the March 6 conviction of Asif Merchant, a Pakistani IRGC-linked operative, on terrorism and murder-for-hire charges in a foiled plot targeting US politicians including Donald Trump. Recent related developments, like a May 13 guilty plea by an Iranian-American for smuggling an IRGC-tied individual into the US and April arrests for Iran-backed arms trafficking, fall short of qualifying as agent charges. With the deadline approaching and no visible procedural momentum such as unsealed indictments or court filings, traders see slim odds of a shift barring late-breaking enforcement action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$4,734終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 89% for an Iranian agent being formally charged by US federal or state authorities before May 31, driven by the absence of new Department of Justice (DOJ) indictments or announcements in the past month amid ongoing tensions. The latest major legal action was the March 6 conviction of Asif Merchant, a Pakistani IRGC-linked operative, on terrorism and murder-for-hire charges in a foiled plot targeting US politicians including Donald Trump. Recent related developments, like a May 13 guilty plea by an Iranian-American for smuggling an IRGC-tied individual into the US and April arrests for Iran-backed arms trafficking, fall short of qualifying as agent charges. With the deadline approaching and no visible procedural momentum such as unsealed indictments or court filings, traders see slim odds of a shift barring late-breaking enforcement action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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