Musk’s completed 130-day stint leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in 2025, followed by its July 2026 sunset and his return to Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI oversight, underpins the 91.8% market-implied odds against rejoining the Trump administration. Policy disagreements over spending priorities and a subsequent focus on Republican midterm funding have kept his involvement informal at most. Traders see limited scope for a formal return given his emphasis on private-sector AI model development and electric vehicle production. A sudden cabinet-level appointment or major rift resolution could still shift sentiment, though current reporting shows no such catalysts on the horizon.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Musk’s completed 130-day stint leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in 2025, followed by its July 2026 sunset and his return to Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI oversight, underpins the 91.8% market-implied odds against rejoining the Trump administration. Policy disagreements over spending priorities and a subsequent focus on Republican midterm funding have kept his involvement informal at most. Traders see limited scope for a formal return given his emphasis on private-sector AI model development and electric vehicle production. A sudden cabinet-level appointment or major rift resolution could still shift sentiment, though current reporting shows no such catalysts on the horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
音量
$9,666終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Musk’s completed 130-day stint leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in 2025, followed by its July 2026 sunset and his return to Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI oversight, underpins the 91.8% market-implied odds against rejoining the Trump administration. Policy disagreements over spending priorities and a subsequent focus on Republican midterm funding have kept his involvement informal at most. Traders see limited scope for a formal return given his emphasis on private-sector AI model development and electric vehicle production. A sudden cabinet-level appointment or major rift resolution could still shift sentiment, though current reporting shows no such catalysts on the horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$9,666終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Musk’s completed 130-day stint leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in 2025, followed by its July 2026 sunset and his return to Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI oversight, underpins the 91.8% market-implied odds against rejoining the Trump administration. Policy disagreements over spending priorities and a subsequent focus on Republican midterm funding have kept his involvement informal at most. Traders see limited scope for a formal return given his emphasis on private-sector AI model development and electric vehicle production. A sudden cabinet-level appointment or major rift resolution could still shift sentiment, though current reporting shows no such catalysts on the horizon.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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