Traders assign an 88.5 percent probability to no U.S. annexation of territory by December 31, 2026, because early legislative proposals have stalled without advancing through committee or securing bipartisan support. The January 2026 Greenland Annexation and Statehood Act and related measures faced immediate opposition from Denmark, Greenlandic officials, and NATO allies, prompting counter-legislation such as the NATO Unity Protection Act that blocks funding for any occupation or sovereignty assertion over alliance territory. Recent U.S.-Danish talks have shifted toward expanded military base access in southern Greenland without ceding sovereignty, while separate remarks about potential Venezuelan statehood remain exploratory and lack formal diplomatic or congressional follow-through. These developments reinforce structural barriers under U.S. constitutional requirements for territorial acquisition and international consent, leaving no viable path to resolution before year-end.