The Bank of Mexico’s May 7 decision to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% and explicitly signal an end to its two-year easing cycle underpins the 91.5% implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. The board cited greater economic slack after a Q1 contraction alongside headline inflation easing to 4.45% in April, with forecasts still pointing to convergence on the 3% target only in Q2 2027 amid upside risks from non-core prices and external uncertainty. Traders view this forward guidance as anchoring the monetary policy stance at its current level, consistent with the split 3-2 vote and subsequent analyst consensus for a prolonged hold. A material acceleration in core inflation or renewed peso depreciation could reopen the door to further easing, though such shifts appear limited in the near term given the bank’s data-dependent approach.