The Bank of Mexico’s May 7 decision to cut its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent, coupled with explicit guidance that the easing cycle has concluded, underpins the 93.6 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. Recent data reinforce this stance: April headline inflation eased to 4.45 percent and core to 4.26 percent, while first-quarter GDP contracted, creating additional economic slack and tempering demand pressures. With inflation still well above the 3 percent target and elevated geopolitical and trade uncertainties persisting, the board has signaled a clear preference for holding the restrictive stance steady. A sharper rebound in activity or an upside surprise in non-core prices could still prompt reconsideration before the June resolution.