Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green holds a commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, with traders assigning a 90.5% probability to a Democratic victory. This reflects the state's longstanding Democratic dominance in statewide contests, Green's solid approval rating near 56 percent, and broad respect for his response to the 2023 wildfires. Major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, and no prominent Republican challengers have emerged ahead of the June 2026 filing deadline. A competitive outcome would require either a late surge by a well-known GOP candidate or an unforeseen event that sharply erodes the incumbent's support before the November general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democrat
91%
Republican
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democrat
$2,851 거래량
91%
Republican
$4,019 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green holds a commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, with traders assigning a 90.5% probability to a Democratic victory. This reflects the state's longstanding Democratic dominance in statewide contests, Green's solid approval rating near 56 percent, and broad respect for his response to the 2023 wildfires. Major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, and no prominent Republican challengers have emerged ahead of the June 2026 filing deadline. A competitive outcome would require either a late surge by a well-known GOP candidate or an unforeseen event that sharply erodes the incumbent's support before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
거래량
$6,871종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green holds a commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, with traders assigning a 90.5% probability to a Democratic victory. This reflects the state's longstanding Democratic dominance in statewide contests, Green's solid approval rating near 56 percent, and broad respect for his response to the 2023 wildfires. Major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, and no prominent Republican challengers have emerged ahead of the June 2026 filing deadline. A competitive outcome would require either a late surge by a well-known GOP candidate or an unforeseen event that sharply erodes the incumbent's support before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$6,871종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Green holds a commanding position in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, with traders assigning a 90.5% probability to a Democratic victory. This reflects the state's longstanding Democratic dominance in statewide contests, Green's solid approval rating near 56 percent, and broad respect for his response to the 2023 wildfires. Major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, and no prominent Republican challengers have emerged ahead of the June 2026 filing deadline. A competitive outcome would require either a late surge by a well-known GOP candidate or an unforeseen event that sharply erodes the incumbent's support before the November general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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