**Current ensemble forecasts from agencies like AEMET and the UK Met Office indicate a maximum of 31°C for Madrid on June 15, with some runs reaching 32°C depending on afternoon heating and cloud cover.** This narrow spread underpins the near-even market split between those two outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance against real-time model updates and local factors such as the urban heat island effect at central stations like Retiro. Recent days have featured highs of 33–35°C amid above-normal June temperatures flagged in AEMET’s seasonal outlook, but a modest cooling trend and possible light winds or scattered clouds could cap the peak. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum recorded at the reference station, so fresh afternoon observations and final model consensus runs will determine whether the market tilts toward 31°C or 32°C.